tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post3025395221961102650..comments2024-03-05T08:25:01.029-05:00Comments on Poker Grump: Bill-paying, or not?Rakewellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-7342172448576803072012-05-08T05:54:42.493-04:002012-05-08T05:54:42.493-04:00Playing 1/2 NL in Las Vegas against the player typ...Playing 1/2 NL in Las Vegas against the player type that you describe here, I'll always fold in this situation. I would guess 8 or 9 times out of 10, you are beat here.<br /><br />I've learned my lesson from the past. When I lose big pots in Las Vegas, it's in scenarios exactly like this. I get in situations against older nits or most women(at 1/2) and refuse to fold and end up getting stacked. <br /><br />It's a one pair hand. You're probably beat so just fold and move on. <br /><br />Why did you rule out 8/9 suited as a possible hand? People love to open limp and then call raises with this type of hand.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-55352577079660453682012-05-08T03:48:41.838-04:002012-05-08T03:48:41.838-04:00you are beat. fold. overpaid or set.
old vegas ...you are beat. fold. overpaid or set.<br /><br />old vegas tight guy. you are deadAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-74304331056420546942012-05-08T03:47:56.906-04:002012-05-08T03:47:56.906-04:00you are beat. overpair or setyou are beat. overpair or setAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-20895464115847423912012-05-08T02:19:08.395-04:002012-05-08T02:19:08.395-04:00Yeah, I agree....fold. He's not going to call...Yeah, I agree....fold. He's not going to call your shove if he can't beat TPTK. He may have just limped with a big pair knowing you were going to raise for him. Risking your stack here doesn't seem wise. If you had a smaller stack, maybe, but with 100BB's....you haven't put much in the pot, time to bale.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05767080296489122846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-75826137114713753242012-05-07T23:10:46.887-04:002012-05-07T23:10:46.887-04:00Fold. You're beat.Fold. You're beat.Big-Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09694663647642834751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-1170883578360727842012-05-07T22:51:59.027-04:002012-05-07T22:51:59.027-04:00I'd guess that pre-flop he expected you to rai...I'd guess that pre-flop he expected you to raise so he limped with an over pair. Your AT is up against JJ or better. You c-bet $20 and got the information you ask for, you're beat. Risk $170 or give up the $35 you invested already?JoeMally122noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-3122097432659673152012-05-07T22:24:38.626-04:002012-05-07T22:24:38.626-04:00I'm not reading a big pair here from your desc...I'm not reading a big pair here from your description. I'm terrified of a set, but I'm likely shoving to get it confirmed. (probably not the smartest play as he's only likely calling if he has me beat). At that point though, I'd be happy to take the pot down at this point and with at least a 50% estimate that you are ahead and some outs although long shots, I think I push and hold breath.Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17190937282558817928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-80430048840102699612012-05-07T21:36:14.280-04:002012-05-07T21:36:14.280-04:00I agree with Dan, I'm about 50/50 on this hand...I agree with Dan, I'm about 50/50 on this hand but for some reason, I get the feeling he slow played a big pair in the hopes you would raise like this. He gave you the perfect opportunity to raise from the BB and steal everyone's blinds. The other hands I can see him with is 98 suited, maybe 10-7 but doubtful, or a set of 7s or 3's. He could have K-10 or J-10. Or nothing at all. But the call is close enough that I'd dump it.The Neophytehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11606959676407800658noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-88373476734059449252012-05-07T20:38:22.604-04:002012-05-07T20:38:22.604-04:00Sounds like he has J-J and has trapped you.Sounds like he has J-J and has trapped you.Memphis MOJOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12653631347560307425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-32951223482050401882012-05-07T16:31:52.260-04:002012-05-07T16:31:52.260-04:00Really tough call. I'd say it's 50/50 here...Really tough call. I'd say it's 50/50 here, and both moves are justifiable. I go back and forth. I folded A-10 in this spot in December and it was the "wrong" move. <br /><br />Case for shoving: <br />Hard to say what's beating you here, though you've done a nice job of laying them out. I think if he's frustrated, like you seem to think, I don't think he'd wait with JJ-AA to repop you and "trap" you, unless it is with AA only.<br />His range is indeed wide here.<br />Honestly given that you are probably ahead 60-70 percent of the time here.<br />A set is possible but not likely, and why would he want to shove you off with a set on such a dry board?<br />He also seems to be daring you to call, which usually means he doesn't want one. And a pot-sized bet is a good bet because it's hard to read, but it's safe to say it's not really a bet that's crying for a call.<br /><br />Case for folding:<br />You seem to read him as smug. That tells me he's probably not bluffing. He may have 9-9 and think he has the best hand, but most good players will not pot commit an opponent or themselves with only top pair.<br />He very well could have something, and he's not a wild player.<br /><br />Given all these, I think I shove. If he has a set so be it. He played it well under the circumstances. I hate to shove because he'll only call with a better hand, i.e. I doubt he calls with K-10 or 9-9 no matter how frustrated he is, but he may, and it could win you more money down the road even if you lose this hand.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08837529956827141862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-64440246932214141322012-05-07T14:11:39.542-04:002012-05-07T14:11:39.542-04:00Shove...then hit the nearest VBJ machine to get un...Shove...then hit the nearest VBJ machine to get unstuck.<br /><br />Wait, shit, wrong blog.Chris in Dallasnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-85378865918934781502012-05-07T13:04:30.743-04:002012-05-07T13:04:30.743-04:00Calling is out of the question. Given the board te...Calling is out of the question. Given the board texture, Bill's action and your hand, nothing is going to substantially change on the turn (perhaps an ace, but even then, you're behind a lot of Bill's hands still and he's going to shut down with all of his T-X hands), leaving you with not even a pot sized bet and a relatively weak holding. With his raise on the flop, there is really no reason to think he's not going to continue firing on the turn. Old nits don't usually have a stop-n-go move in their arsenal. The only reason I can think to call is if you believe he is more likely to stack off with less than TPTK on the turn than shoving now. Really, Bill's propensity to get the money in with KT or worse in this spot is the entire question. <br /><br />It sounds like you have a good bit more history with Bill that is going to allow you to make a more informed decision. FWIW, I probably fold in your shoes against players I know similar to what you have said. Players like Bill who are going to gamble calling the raise preflop with hands including a ten are more likely to call you down than raise you. A raise in this situation usually means Bill can beat top pair. I think you're looking at a range of: KT, AT, JJ, QQ, TT, 77 and 33, the majority of which you lose to. I'd fold, not feel bad about it and move on, probably following through with your plan to slow down a bit. If you've aggravated the table enough that old nits are raising you and you don't know exactly where you are, your loose play has achieved the goal of getting the game moving freely.<br /><br />If you'd been playing some random casino patron who was clearly frustrated with your bullying ways, I'd get it in here pretty happily and live with the results. Random casino donkeys are more than happy to limp-call -> get it in with 9T-KT here if they feel like you're running away with the game.hfrog355https://www.blogger.com/profile/07693280860696461311noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-86578106395073255202012-05-07T11:23:34.239-04:002012-05-07T11:23:34.239-04:00instead of shove, it´s possible to do the "un...instead of shove, it´s possible to do the "unknown all-in move", call flop raise and check call in turn & river. You are all-in in flop but nobody knows. This move, sometimes let me get to river with no cost; if he´s got nothing, he could check turn. Your hand may improve to a better one, then re-evaluate river.<br />I know this can be seen as a weak move, but is often positive against players as describe, he can have a monster or air..., let´s see it as lowcost as possibleAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-8430799544231252582012-05-07T11:00:30.075-04:002012-05-07T11:00:30.075-04:00I would have called, but you've already descri...I would have called, but you've already described that as "not a reasonable option". There's a reason I am commenting on this blog instead of writing it...<br /><br />So, of the two options of fold or shove, I would shove. Take that with a grain of salt (or entire salt-lick).There are some who call me... Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501871165064593983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-32835140092374984452012-05-07T10:56:08.570-04:002012-05-07T10:56:08.570-04:00I would call, but then that is not an option, plus...I would call, but then that is not an option, plus you've described it as a not-very-good move (there's a reason I am commenting on this blog, not writing it...).<br /><br />So, I would go all-in. Again, please note the "commenter" vs "author" title, and consider taking my advice with an entire salt-lick instead of a grain of salt.There are some who call me... Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501871165064593983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-47538716579839784542012-05-07T10:10:08.946-04:002012-05-07T10:10:08.946-04:00I am mainly a limit guy and have problems with nl ...I am mainly a limit guy and have problems with nl due mainly to bet sizing and controlling pot size.. that said after ur bet of 20 he was facing a pot size of roughly 49 (54-5) so his raise is about the size of the pot (he may not realize that this puts the pot size to 94 and makes you pot committed if you call) so it seems like a X10 is his hand.. I would call and bet out on the turn (if no face cards) about 60...if a face hits check and see how much he bets... but you are still probably get it all end<br />thoughts from a donkey at nl and also a geezer TAGgeezerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17062173958381062515noreply@blogger.com