tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post6432288506497543334..comments2024-03-05T08:25:01.029-05:00Comments on Poker Grump: Call or fold?Rakewellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-65826060254811845222011-06-12T18:16:34.574-04:002011-06-12T18:16:34.574-04:00Very interesting hand.
But villain's fast all...Very interesting hand.<br /><br />But villain's fast all-in shove seems VERY hinky to me, especially when you describe what's happened to him in earlier hands. <br /><br />Unless he's capable of pulling off a reverse-tell here (which I don't think he is, based on what you've said) you are obliged to call him.<br /><br />I think you're the winner here. And I think he's missed everything.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-80001963044979102422011-06-12T17:25:14.583-04:002011-06-12T17:25:14.583-04:00Bottom line here is that it costs you $136 to win ...Bottom line here is that it costs you $136 to win $282. Since you are getting better than 2 to 1 you only have to be right here 1/3 of the time. And I agree with another comment that the way this played it is most likely that Villain has 2 pair or maybe a set. Purely on the math this is an easy call.CoolDave88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14620541059962960877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-68151635696430129782011-06-12T13:58:16.503-04:002011-06-12T13:58:16.503-04:00hi grumpy
i like these interesting hands of yours...hi grumpy<br /><br />i like these interesting hands of yours so have had a play with pokerstove and having assigned villain a range i think he could show up with here stove says 80/20 in ur favour so its a call for me<br /><br />i gave him the following range:<br /><br />99,66,AcJc,AhJh,AsJs,ATs,Ac9c,Ah9h,As9s,Ac8c,Ah8h,As8s,Ac7c,Ah7h,As7s,A6s-A5s,KdJd,KsJs,QJs,Q9s-Q8s,JcTc,JhTh,JsTs,J8s,T9s,9c8c,9h8h,9s8s,8c7c,8h7h,8s7s,7c6c,7h6h,7s6s,65s,KJo,QJo,Q9o-Q8o,T9o<br /><br />- i think he may have sets of 66 and 99 in his range here and just got a hard on<br />- i think lots of missed nut flush draws thinking he can ship and fold out pretty much all ur range<br />- random pair+draws that missed<br />- random hands that have showdown value but he is turning into a bluff<br /><br />i have discounted a lot of hands due to there being no raise on turn and no bet for value/protection on flop when chked thur...so have included some hands like weak Qs and Ts. in addition to suited connectors drawing to bad enf of str8 (i have also discounted one suit from a lot of the hands that have monster equity if they were the same suit as the two on the flop)<br /><br />also not forgetting the total random spew possibility, thinking you are at it, other player has shown no strength<br /><br />so i think is a profitable call.<br /><br />Text results appended to pokerstove.txt<br /><br /> 93 games 0.005 secs 18,600 games/sec<br /><br />Board: Qh Th 6c 5c 9d<br />Dead: <br /><br /> equity win tie pots won pots tied <br />Hand 0: 80.645% 79.57% 01.08% 74 1.00 { 8h7d }<br />Hand 1: 19.355% 18.28% 01.08% 17 1.00 { 99, 66, AcJc, AhJh, AsJs, ATs, Ac9c, Ah9h, As9s, Ac8c, Ah8h, As8s, Ac7c, Ah7h, As7s, A6s-A5s, KdJd, KsJs, QJs, Q9s-Q8s, JcTc, JhTh, JsTs, J8s, T9s, 9c8c, 9h8h, 9s8s, 8c7c, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7c6c, 7h6h, 7s6s, 65s, KJo, QJo, Q9o-Q8o, T9o }<br /><br />- sumerlinAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-67823874098492178562011-06-12T12:37:56.808-04:002011-06-12T12:37:56.808-04:00I think you overestimate the scariness of the rive...I think you overestimate the scariness of the river 9 to someone with a set or two pair. Sure, it completes straights, but if you had a straight, you played the hand a little oddly from the point of view of the button. Given your image, I doubt he thinks you have J8 or 87, and he likely doubts you raise preflop with KJ and expected you to play KJ more aggressively postflop.<br /><br />I think button rivered either a set or two pair (T9 most likely). Those hands call a preflop raise, check the flop, and float the turn given the blank turn and the passive play to that point. River looks like gin. When you bet, the insta-push is intended to look like busted flush draw, only this time he's gleefully thinking he has you trapped and will get his revenge.<br /><br />I agree you see KJ here sometimes, J8 seldom, but QT, T9, and 99 are enough in the mix to justify a call given the strength of your hand.Grange95https://www.blogger.com/profile/01857460215043659894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-7789645931297476242011-06-12T10:49:47.693-04:002011-06-12T10:49:47.693-04:00fold,tough although the pot is laying you better t...fold,tough although the pot is laying you better than 2 to 1geezerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17062173958381062515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-43139383287395016042011-06-12T09:46:08.098-04:002011-06-12T09:46:08.098-04:00Good hand, and you do have a lot to consider here....Good hand, and you do have a lot to consider here. I think he bets the flop to take it down with KJ in most cases, especially being in position. But then again, maybe the flush draw scared him off and the double flush draw on the turn made him decide to just call. He may be leery of putting in a big bet and getting called by the draw just to get rivered. Based on his bets it seems likely to put him on either KJ or pocket 10s or more likely pocket sixes. Is it worth it to be wrong 50% of the time and right the other 50%. Maybe he had 8-7 suited? Flopped the flush draw and was happy enough to see the straight come in on the river? Since you raised he puts you on a set? Interesting.The Neophytehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11606959676407800658noreply@blogger.com