tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.comments2023-11-29T06:17:48.006-05:00Poker GrumpRakewellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comBlogger10006125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-23193935678805069402023-09-02T06:54:45.428-04:002023-09-02T06:54:45.428-04:00Obviously you're playing it wrong.Obviously you're playing it wrong.Rakewellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-384055625256873052023-09-01T19:26:27.810-04:002023-09-01T19:26:27.810-04:00I hate to admit it Grump but you are responsible f...I hate to admit it Grump but you are responsible for my living in a van down by the river. I keep getting 2-4 and going "what the hell the Grump plays it" why not give it a go...it hasn't been pretty<br />geezerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17062173958381062515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-1982133552107703032023-09-01T15:11:45.476-04:002023-09-01T15:11:45.476-04:00Nailed it. Nailed it. unabletodeleteblogprofilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00063028949312473970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-69246027252753665612023-06-22T04:58:52.546-04:002023-06-22T04:58:52.546-04:00Indeed, ChatGPT does have its limitations. While i...Indeed, ChatGPT does have its limitations. While it is a remarkable language model capable of generating coherent responses, it is important to acknowledge its shortcomings. One of the main limitations is that ChatGPT's responses are solely based on patterns and examples from the data it was trained on, without truly understanding the context or having genuine comprehension. PokerAce99https://pokerace99.justmy.bio/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-81638596989367812982023-05-10T15:35:12.783-04:002023-05-10T15:35:12.783-04:00We call the mighty deuce-four the poker grump hand...We call the mighty deuce-four the poker grump hand<br />great to see you postFarmer Donhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10334169788348831674noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-66740069675457167222023-04-07T13:27:59.490-04:002023-04-07T13:27:59.490-04:00Missing your instructive blog,RIPMissing your instructive blog,RIPskippobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15169611500027330968noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-80615190572279451432023-03-28T23:52:31.129-04:002023-03-28T23:52:31.129-04:00I've tried to immortalize the Grump in my Hand...I've tried to immortalize the Grump in my <a href="https://w50p.com/po/ponicknamesH.html" rel="nofollow">Hand Nicknames list</a>, but my site probably gets even fewer hits than this mostly dormant blog.<br /><br />I hope you're still playing poker even if you're no longer blogging about it...<br /><br /><br />Robert Jen (the World's Greatest Unknown WSOP Historian; f.k.a. the THETA Poker guy)THETA Pokerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12480036640392059594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-72153733583195047392023-03-27T07:27:54.758-04:002023-03-27T07:27:54.758-04:00There was a time when this would have drawn many c...There was a time when this would have drawn many comments.<br />Now if anyone reads it, they are most likely just confused.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02633161934346741072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-57215082525390136082021-09-14T11:48:58.589-04:002021-09-14T11:48:58.589-04:00It was actually Season 2 episode 11It was actually Season 2 episode 11Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-24257385658876120092021-05-26T08:53:20.079-04:002021-05-26T08:53:20.079-04:00The possibility of collusion has not been mentione...The possibility of collusion has not been mentioned. I'm in middle position with AA. In response to a raise I broadcast to the table that I have AA. This alerts my friend in the cut-off to fold JJ. Is this not something that should be considered when players are okay to broadcast their actual hands mid play?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13358514792371774916noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-91355850723687335582021-05-25T00:25:25.476-04:002021-05-25T00:25:25.476-04:00Thanks for posting the very interesting Scientific...Thanks for posting the very interesting Scientific American article and the (17/20) game. Boghosian is a math professor at Tufts University, so I'm certain that he and the other international heavyweights cited in the article are familiar with the combinatorics behind the game. (17/20) however is presented as a suitable model for wealth trickling up, and the creation of oligarchs. This is borne out by your simulations - lots of folks going broke and a few getting obscenely wealthy.Mr Subliminalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03695144984530658902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-83147218812178640282021-05-24T12:16:48.259-04:002021-05-24T12:16:48.259-04:00See the addendum I wrote to the original post. See the addendum I wrote to the original post. Rakewellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-59060239438062420792021-05-24T09:42:59.943-04:002021-05-24T09:42:59.943-04:00Have you tried running the simulation a bunch more...Have you tried running the simulation a bunch more times?Pokerdogghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12006774484023250909noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-79436276094271124732021-05-24T01:56:18.543-04:002021-05-24T01:56:18.543-04:00This true statement, "any number of coin toss...This true statement, "any number of coin tosses greater than 1 will result in a net loss if the heads and tails are equal in number, regardless of what order the heads and tails come in", has led you astray.<br /><br />An equal number of heads and tails does not happen all of the time or even a majority of the time. In a 4-round game, only 6 of the 16 outcomes have 2 heads and 2 tails. Four outcomes have 1 head and 3 tails, and one outcome has 4 tails. These 11 outcomes all lose money, but the 5 other outcomes (3+ heads) win more total money than these 11 negatives lose.<br /><br /><br />[BTW, to make sure that Kevin Nealon and I weren't going crazy, I did create a spreadsheet before my last comment. When the averages (with no resets) came out to +1.50 for 1 round, +3.02 for 2, +4.57 for 3, and +6.14 for 4, I stopped as those are exactly +1.5^1%, +1.5^2%, +1.5^3%, and +1.5^4% as expected. I also double-checked to make sure it wasn't April 1 but was unable to confirm if aliens had taken over your mind (I do think you're not playing enough poker now though).]THETA Pokerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12480036640392059594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-29038382613926986392021-05-23T20:40:08.894-04:002021-05-23T20:40:08.894-04:00Looking back, there was a typo in my post of 4:40 ...Looking back, there was a typo in my post of 4:40 PM :<br /><br />"When you combine HH, HT, TH, and TT, you are in essence dealing with 4 coin tosses."<br /><br />All references to 4 coin tosses should be to <b>8</b> coin tosses.Mr Subliminalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03695144984530658902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-37042578096995083482021-05-23T20:24:17.031-04:002021-05-23T20:24:17.031-04:00"When all the money is left on the table with...<b>"When all the money is left on the table without resetting, any number of coin tosses greater than 1 will result in a net loss if the heads and tails are equal in number, regardless of what order the heads and tails come in.<br /><br />I assert that that is a true and provable statement. Do you agree?"</b><br /><br />Yes. That's why I suggested looking at 3 tosses.Mr Subliminalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03695144984530658902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-74029656713331764042021-05-23T20:12:46.244-04:002021-05-23T20:12:46.244-04:00"No, it's not 8 tosses. It's the 4 po..."No, it's not 8 tosses. It's the 4 possible, equiprobable results of 2 tosses, and #3 is just the expected value of those 2 tosses." <br /><br />I understand your point. Your point is that playing a two-toss game has a positive EV, because the sum of the wins and losses resulting from the four possible H/T two-toss combinations, all of which are equally probable, is a net win. <br /><br />I'll say this: There's something to what you're saying. I've played around with some numbers for the last hour, and got some results I wasn't expecting. I'll write more in the morning about what I've found. Rakewellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-48823237242843223192021-05-23T19:29:46.890-04:002021-05-23T19:29:46.890-04:00"And mixing up the order of a symmetrical H a..."And mixing up the order of a symmetrical H and T count (HT or HHTT or HHTHHTTT, where number of H = number of T) will always result in a loss. No argument there." <br /><br />I'm not quite sure what you're saying here. Let me rephrase it and see if you agree: <br /><br />When all the money is left on the table without resetting, any number of coin tosses greater than 1 will result in a net loss if the heads and tails are equal in number, regardless of what order the heads and tails come in. <br /><br />I assert that that is a true and provable statement. Do you agree? Rakewellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-45087554866116005352021-05-23T18:55:27.001-04:002021-05-23T18:55:27.001-04:00"Let's take the order of 8 tosses as HHHT...<b>"Let's take the order of 8 tosses as HHHTTHTT, to match what you wrote here."</b><br /><br />No, it's not 8 tosses. It's the 4 possible, equiprobable results of 2 tosses, and #3 is just the expected value of those 2 tosses.Mr Subliminalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03695144984530658902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-11217698331718208812021-05-23T18:18:37.840-04:002021-05-23T18:18:37.840-04:00Firstly my 3 sentences above were about 2 coin tos...Firstly my 3 sentences above were about 2 coin tosses, so let's stick to that. I don't know why you bring up 8 coin tosses.<br /><br />And mixing up the order of a symmetrical H and T count (HT or HHTT or HHTHHTTT, where number of H = number of T) will always result in a loss. No argument there.<br /><br />Here's an idea - how about looking at 3 coin tosses, an uneven number.Mr Subliminalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03695144984530658902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-6284286411451335722021-05-23T18:07:15.532-04:002021-05-23T18:07:15.532-04:00The problem is with #3, because it is not arithmet...The problem is with #3, because it is not arithmetically equivalent to running 8 coin tosses in a row while leaving the money on the table the whole time. <br /><br />Let's take the order of 8 tosses as HHHTTHTT, to match what you wrote here. Starting with $100, what you'll have left after that sequence of tosses is $98.41. That's trivially easy to check. Do you get a different result? <br /><br />Assuming you get the same result that I do, then mix up the order of the Hs and Ts. I believe you'll find that it makes no difference. Agreed? <br />Rakewellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-62306060981330586472021-05-23T17:14:26.453-04:002021-05-23T17:14:26.453-04:00"As long as they are evenly divided into head...<b>"As long as they are evenly divided into heads and tails, they can be in any order you like."</b><br /><br />Unfortunately this isn't the case in real life.<br /><br />Before I reluctantly spend time on a simulation on this beautiful Sunday afternoon, let me know the first sentence you disagree with below, and why :<br /><br />1) For 2 coin tosses with initial bet of $100, HH = +$44, HT = -$0.40, TH = -$0.40, TT = -$31.11<br /><br />2) For 2 coin tosses, the probability of HH = HT = TH = TT = 0.25, and there are no other possible permutations.<br /><br />3) The expectation of 1) above therefore is $11 - $0.10 - $0.10 - $7.7775 = $3.0225.Mr Subliminalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03695144984530658902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-69035329251640745512021-05-23T17:02:05.510-04:002021-05-23T17:02:05.510-04:00BTW, I just did exactly that trial, with randomiza...BTW, I just did exactly that trial, with randomization. Incredibly, about halfway through the 1000 simulated coin tosses, I was up to $53,000, because of several heads-heavy runs. But the law of large numbers caught up to me. It finally dipped back below $100 on toss #883, and after 1000, I was down to $3.09. <br />Rakewellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-69404506516953553282021-05-23T16:44:59.343-04:002021-05-23T16:44:59.343-04:00OK, so run a spreadsheet simulation of the game th...OK, so run a spreadsheet simulation of the game that isn't strictly 50/50, but randomly chooses H or T for each toss. Let it run 1000 trials or more so that the outcome isn't overly influenced by short-term lopsidedness in luck. What is the result? <br /><br />Rakewellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873391354585352712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36880087.post-80602538650764556052021-05-23T16:40:56.974-04:002021-05-23T16:40:56.974-04:00I agree that "if you run through HH, HT, TH, ...I agree that "if you run through HH, HT, TH, and TT once each--consecutively (in any order you like), leaving the money on the table every time ... you'll find that it's $98.41--a loss, not a win". This only confirms the commutative property of multiplication. However, I believe you are making the same error here as you did in the 2 coin toss scenario - ignoring all the other permutations.<br /><br />When you combine HH, HT, TH, and TT, you are in essence dealing with 4 coin tosses. So running through only HH, HT, TH, and TT in any order will lead to a loss, just as running through only HT and TH in the 2 coin toss scenario leads to a loss. However in 4 coin tosses, we don't always have the perfect symmetry of 4 heads and 4 tails. Sometimes we'll have 5 heads and 3 tails for a profit of $42.28, which eclipses the $31.93 loss of the opposite 3 heads and 5 tails. Not to mention the other permutations.<br /><br /> Mr Subliminalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03695144984530658902noreply@blogger.com