This one is about the psychology of the "near-miss" phenomenon in gambling generally, and in poker specifically.
https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/no-cigar-how-to-exploit-the-psychology-of-the-near-miss-26408.htm
Monday, November 21, 2016
PokerNews article #138
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A point worth making (and you do make it obliquely) is that, through simple mathematics, a 'near miss' happens far, far more often than a 'hit'.
For example, on a slot machine, let's say a jackpot is five reels lining up as follows (with Y being a 'jackpot' symbol, and # being a random 'other' :
#####
YYYYY
#####
There are 10 combinations where a Y is one above or one below the 'payline'. That's 10 'near misses' for every hit.
With poker, the same point is clear as well.
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