Deuce-Four always wins

PokerNews article #138

This one is about the psychology of the "near-miss" phenomenon in gambling generally, and in poker specifically.

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/no-cigar-how-to-exploit-the-psychology-of-the-near-miss-26408.htm

Deuce-Four always wins

Even when it doesn't make the best hand, it plays Jedi mind tricks on your opponents.

PokerNews article #137

Remember the old sitcom "Taxi"? There's a poker lesson in it.

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/value-bet-sizing-problem-26346.htm

PokerNews article #136

How mind games we play with ourselves can go wrong:

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/fooling-yourself-doyle-brunson-mind-games-26221.htm

Ten years ago today

Happy birthday, first blog post!

"The Mandibles"

This morning I finished reading a fine new novel by Lionel Shriver, The Mandibles: A Family, 2029-2047. It's set in a frighteningly realistic near-future America after a total economic collapse caused by unsustainable federal spending and debt. Hyperinflation sets in, and US currency becomes nearly worthless. But Nevada secedes from the union and becomes a free, rogue state.

I like how she describes Las Vegas:

PokerNews article #135

Poker lessons from Hillary Clinton, Napoleon, Mike Caro, and Sun Tzu.

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/poker-strategy-as-taught-by-the-presidential-campaign-26152.htm

PokerNews article #134

Last week I saw a tweet from Teller, of Penn & Teller, and instantly knew that it was a poker lesson waiting to be explicated:

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/focus-creates-blindness-things-you-dont-see-in-poker-26085.htm

PokerNews article #133

Today I try to teach you about how to use a binomial calculator, and what kinds of poker math questions it can answer for you.

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/poker-math-online-tool-binomial-calculator-26022.htm

Lee Jones, Deuce-Four skeptic

Yesterday I finally met Lee Jones, who is the director of communications for PokerStars, and author of the well-regarded Winning Low-Limit Hold'Em (which Amazon helpfully informs me that I purchased on June 8, 2006). I say "finally" because I had learned from a mutual friend that he lived around Asheville. As a result, I had expected to bump into him a lot earlier, but he moved away around the same time that I was moving here from Vegas.

He kindly reached out to me to say that he and some friends would be at Harrah's Cherokee Saturday, and would I like to join them? I would indeed, and I did.

Delightful fellow, as I had expected based not only on his writings but on reports from others who know him. But I have to say, for somebody so steeped in the poker world, he has a shockingly poor grasp of the game's most powerful hands.

The group of us split between two tables. Lee was at the other with a friend who was taking her first stab at casino poker. After a while, Lee came over to tell us her unhappy experience. She got all in with a set of fives, on a flop of A-3-5.

Would you like to guess what hand beat her? (Hint: Not pocket aces.)

Any regular reader of this blog knows the answer without a moment's hesitation: The Mighty Deuce-Four, of course!

Despite his years in the poker world, Lee has somehow not learned that this is the most powerful hand in hold'em poker. I tried to explain it to him, tried to tell him that I now have 177 blog posts documenting the invincibility of Deuce-Four. I assumed he was in one of those moments that make one subject to seeing the light, having just beheld the power with his own eyes.

Sadly, rather than embracing the truth, he hardened his heart and would not hear the message of the 2-4 Gospel--even though it was coming straight from the High Priest of the Holy Order of the Deuce-Four himself.

Lee, my new friend: I forgive you your unbelief. But I will patiently continue to try to get you to accept what must now appear to you as foolishness. I have confidence that in time the scales will fall from your eyes so that you may see clearly. And I'll be waiting to anoint you into our cult community of faith when that great day arrives.

All Hail the Mighty Deuce-Four!

PokerNews article #132

This is an introduction to the concept of elasticity in poker.

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/elasticity-poker-introduction-25967.htm

Vegas trip

Through my local tavern poker club, I won entry into two of their national-championship tournaments in Vegas coming up in November. Today I found reasonable hotel and airfare prices, so I booked the trip and I'm going. I'll be arriving late on November 4, leaving early on November 10, and staying at the Orleans (which is where the tournaments are being held). This will be my first time back in town since moving away 3 1/2 years ago.

PokerNews article #131

In which I try to derive a poker lesson from the acrophobia I experienced crossing that swinging bridge at Grandfather Mountain last week:

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/mountains-swinging-bridges-and-fear-of-loss-in-poker-25911.htm

Grandfather Mountain

Once a month, Nina and I set aside a whole day to spend together doing something fun or adventurous (ideally, both). Today we drove to Grandfather Mountain, a privately owned preserve about 80 miles from Asheville. It's a lovely place, with stunning views in every direction.

It's been a while since I bragged about the beauty of western North Carolina by sharing some photos, so let's fix that now. (Right click/open link in new tab to see them full size.)


The aptly named Split Rock:

Immediately adjacent to Split Rock is this one, which they call Sphinx Rock. Yes, the entire thing (estimated to weigh 4000 tons) is resting on the small rock under it.

The Rickety Bridge of Certain Death. Well, that's what it felt like walking across. It's possible that's not its official name.

Grandfather Mountain actually has several peaks on the same base. This is the tallest one, seen from one of the more accessible ones.

Just a few random dramatic views:

Here's a couple of shots rendered in black and white, all Ansel-Adams-like. (People often say his work was nearly as good as mine.)

And finally, here's a cute river otter from one of their animal habitats:

Oh, one more thing: On the road up to the summit, signs identify one short stretch as "Forrest Gump Curve." Turns out that a bit of Forrest's famous run was filmed there. You can see it in this clip, from 3:58 to 4:04--just six seconds long.

PokerNews article #130

Poker advice from...William Shakespeare???

Yes, that William Shakespeare.

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/five-lessons-william-shakespeare-unexpected-poker-coach-25865.htm

PokerNews article #129

This is the last of a series of articles I've written on insights about deception and its application to poker from the realm of evolutionary biology.

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/dangers-of-selective-attention-why-we-repeat-poker-mistakes-25794.htm

PokerNews article #128

Here I continue with insights about deception in poker from a book by evolutionary biologist Robert Trivers about deception in the natural world.


http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/why-bluffing-is-hard-and-other-poker-insights-from-biology-25744.htm

PokerNews article #127

You can make more money just by wasting less time at the table. Here's how:

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/seven-ways-to-keep-the-game-moving-increase-hourly-profit-25691.htm

PokerNews #126

This is a long piece trying to dispose of a common--but wrong--objection that I've encountered several times about the standard way of calculating poker probabilities.

Something that got cut from the article because of length was a link back to the first time I addressed it in this blog. It started with me doing a probability calculation here, to which an anonymous reader replied. My further explanation got too long for a comment, so I made it into a new blog post here. That, in turn, triggered a long and quite interesting discussion in the comments. By the end, I think we had finally convinced the doubter that the standard calculation is, in fact, correct.

Last week a friend (who knew nothing of that years-old blog exchange) mentioned to me the very same objection, in the context of the standard way of calculating the probability of hitting a flush draw. So I decided to try to refute it as carefully and thoroughly as I knew how to do, and this was the result:

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/six-ways-of-correcting-a-common-poker-probability-error-25628.htm