You have to believe

It's been a while, so maybe it's time for a refresher course on the key factor in successfully playing The Mighty Deuce-Four.

Last night I was at Harrah's Cherokee, using the PokerPro tables for some $1-2 NLHE. I had started with $300, and after about two hours was down to about $200, when I caught 2-4 for the first time--offsuit, both black.

I was in the small blind. We had three limpers including the cutoff. Button raised to $16. I called, BB called.

Now it got weird: Cutoff, who had the biggest stack of around $600, reraised to $37.  A limp-reraise from late position? Who does that? I think I've seen only two kinds of hands played that way: A-K and medium pairs. I assume that in both cases, these players are thinking roughly along these lines: "This is a hand that is hard to play after the flop unless it improves in a very specific way, which it usually doesn't. Therefore, I'd either like to play it very cheaply, or put in a prohibitive pre-flop raise and end the hand." I don't recall ever seeing anybody play K-K or A-A like this from late position.

Anyway, the button called. I called, of course, since I had the best hand. Besides, I felt in my bones that I was going to flop big. In my bones, I tell you.

Surprisingly, the BB called, too, making the pot a bloated $145 or so before we even had a flop out.

Flop: A-4-4 rainbow.

Of course.

I pleaded with the poker gods: "Oh, please let him have A-K, not a medium pair."

I checked. BB checked. Cutoff bet $50. Button folded. I called. BB folded.

Turn: 7 of the fourth suit. Excellent.

I checked. Cutoff bet $75. I had $112 left. I figured he was thoroughly pot-committed. With me all-in, the pot would be about $430, and he'd only have to call $37 more to stay in. He should do that with just about anything. And he did. The computer revealed our hands. He had J-J. Two outs.

River: King. My old friend the Deuce-Four had done it for me again.

I heard the murmurings around the table: "Are you kidding me?" "I did not expect to see those two hands." "Wow." I just took it in stride. I couldn't feign surprise, since I had known I would win.

When people tell me that they have lost with 2-4, I usually tell them that they didn't play it right. Most often what they do wrong is fail to believe in it. My stock reply is this: "Does Santa bring presents to little boys and girls who do not believe in him? No, he does not. It's the same with Deuce-Four. You have to believe in it for it to work."

I believe.

Separated at birth?

I saw a picture of Senator Ted Cruz somewhere, and at first glance I thought it was Phil Hellmuth. I looked more carefully, and came to think that they are twins separated at birth. What do you think?

(Photo of Hellmuth found here, credited to Getty Images. Photo of Ted Cruz found here, with no photo credit.)

Lucy's Christmas treat

Lucy's favorite treats are chunks of freeze-dried turkey from a company called "Whole Life." But they're really expensive, so most days I just break off a little piece from one for her. For Christmas, I gave her a whole one. 

At first, she could hardly believe her good fortune. 

"Is that what I think it is?" 

"Ooo, it is! I hope nobody's watching."

"Attack!"

"Ooo, that tastes good!"

"I chomps it." (At this point, it finally occurred to me to turn on the camera's flash, which is why the remaining pictures are so much less noisy.)

Going...

going...

gone.

"That was super-yummy!"

I hope all of you get what you most want for Christmas.

PokerNews article #45

This one is all about how to get yourself lost in a poker hand with no idea what how to proceed--in case that's something you want to do.

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/want-to-get-to-poker-s-no-man-s-land-here-s-a-map-20190.htm

Take note of the cute graphic--fake iPhone map directions--that my editor, Short-Stacked Shamus, made to illustrate the article. Nice touch!

PokerNews article #44

How to recognize--and beat--the unbluffable player.

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/how-to-recognize-and-beat-the-unbluffable-player-20103.htm

PokerNews article #43

Should you look at your cards right away or only when it's your turn?

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/which-is-correct-look-at-your-cards-right-away-or-wait-until-20029.htm

PokerNews article #42

Revealed: The single best way to recover from a bad beat.

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/revealed-the-single-best-way-to-recover-from-a-bad-beat-19955.htm



ADDENDUM 

Apparently, this article rubbed somebody the wrong way:

Ha!


ADDENDUM, December 7, 2014 

Somebody from PokerNews found the Full Tilt commercial I referred to in the article:

PokerNews article #41

If you want to win more at poker, start by losing less:

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/2-things-you-need-to-do-to-cut-your-poker-losses-19917.htm

Greeks playing poker

http://existentialcomics.com/comic/55

Just go take a look at it, for a laugh.

Hat tip: Ed Miller.

PokerNews article #40

When strong means weak:

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/when-strong-means-weak-the-chip-grabbing-tell-19843.htm

Poker gems, #471

Joe Stapleton, in Bluff magazine, September, 2014, page 88.


I'm really going to miss charity tournaments like "Put a Bad Beat on Domestic Violence," "Play Dark for the Cincinnati Center for the Blind," and "Flop Quads for Spinal Recovery Center of Duluth."

PokerNews article #39

This is about whether to show a losing hand when the rules don't require it.

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/one-good-reason-to-show-a-losing-hand-and-one-bad-one-19776.htm

PokerNews article #38

This one is about how to decide whether and when to show a winning hand that the rules do not obligate you to show.

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/three-ways-to-decide-whether-or-not-to-show-your-winning-han-19690.htm

Emotional stability

New study says that experienced poker players have the emotional stability to make difficult decisions under pressure:

http://www.psmag.com/navigation/business-economics/emotional-stability-personality-poker-player-gaming-games-gambling-91987/

DuPont State Recreational Forest

Western North Carolina is stuffed to the gills with state and national parks and forests. You could spend years and years here, going hiking every weekend, and still not get through all the trails available.

Yesterday Nina and I spent a couple of hours walking in one little corner of one little state forest that we had not visited before, the DuPont State Recreational Forest. It is most famous for its waterfalls, two of which were featured in the movie "Hunger Games." But we didn't take any of the waterfall hikes. We were in search of vistas of fall foliage.

Here's a bit of what we found. Right-click/open in new tab to see maximum size.

And yes, the sky really was that blue; no digital enhancement.

Finally, one digitally stitched 180-degree panorama: 

PokerNews article #37

The three factors that should determine your cash game buy-in:

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/3-factors-that-should-determine-your-cash-game-buy-in-19629.htm

Bad beat

Remember the nice new car I was so excited about not too long ago? Jackass in an old pickup truck wasn't paying attention on the highway and slammed into it. A line of cars stopped for some unknown reason. Everybody managed to stop safely except for him. After he pushed me forward, I very nearly hit the car in front of me, but fortunately had left j-u-s-t enough room not to.

Submit your guesses in the comments as to what the final repair bill will be. Closest (over or under, not Price Is Right rules) wins--I don't know what.

PokerNews article #36

Does your opponent have that flush? Here's how to tell.

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/does-your-opponent-have-a-flush-here-s-how-to-tell-19578.htm

Probability puzzle

This has nothing to do with poker directly, but this week's Sunday Puzzle on NPR is an interesting exercise of your probability-thinking muscles.

Next week's challenge: The following challenge is based on a puzzle from a Martin Gardner book, that may not be well-known. Out of a regular grade school classroom, two students are chosen at random. Both happen to have blue eyes. If the odds are exactly 50-50 that two randomly chosen students in the class will have blue eyes: How many students are in the class?

I got the answer, but it was really difficult. I ended up having to set up a spreadsheet to automatically calculate the number of ways to select two children from a classroom of n students. This allowed me to play with both the number of students and the number of those that have blue eyes, until I found the combination that worked. 

Maybe there's a simpler, more intuitive way of getting at the answer, instead of using brute force the way I did--but if so, it escaped me. I predict that they will have very, very few correct answers submitted. 

PokerNews article #35

This one is about how to deal with poker bullies:

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/to-defeat-a-poker-bully-you-only-need-to-know-this-one-secre-19523.htm