Sunday, December 09, 2007

A poker observation, from sad experience

The all-in bluff works just often enough to present a recurring temptation to deploy it, but not often enough to actually be profitable.

Posted by Rakewell at 5:59 AM

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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Rakewell,

I think its because the all-in bluff is most frequently a seat-of-the-pants play and not a part of any real plan. I have found that if I start off with the intention of representing a hand on the flop (that is consistent with my pre-flop play) and follow through with that plan, the big bluff will work. However, if on the turn or river I get the 'brilliant' idea of moving a guy off of his hand, I get looked up. Lessinger said it best in his Book of Bluffs when he said bluffs can't be confusing. Also, people (myself included) often try the all-in bluff when either they or the villian are too short-stacked to fold in a huge pot. I have learned to really pay attention to that.

6:21 PM
Rakewell said...

The very first time I played poker online, I missed a draw and went all-in on the river, thinking (as do so many newbies) that nobody can possibly call a bet this large. Not only did somebody call, but I had the added shame of seeing in the chat box, "Who did he think he was fooling with that lame bluff? LOL!"

Fortunately, I've gotten a little bit more finesse to my game these days. I really don't do the out-of-the-blue bluff.

I'm mostly talking about the same kind that you're describing. For example, I have K-K and raise. Get a caller. Flop is A-x-x rainbow. He checks, I continuation-bet. He calls. So I figure him for an ace with a kicker maybe between 9 and Q. Turn is a blank. He checks, I bet again, because I want him to believe I have A-K and fold. He calls again.

Now another brick on the river, and he checks again. Unless we're playing really deep stacks, I can't bet anything here except all-in, given what's now in the pot. So I do, thinking, "Please, please believe that I have you outkicked." And he calls with his A-J.

So it's a consistent story I'm selling, but I've got an opponent who isn't buying. That's my problem.

2:36 AM

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