Sunday, March 08, 2009

New versus established tables

A long time ago I noticed a trend that I wasn't sure was real: Newly started games seemed harder to make money at than when I joined a game that had long been in progress. I couldn't tell if this was a figment of my imagination, a sampling anomaly, or a real phenomenon.

I mentioned it to Cardgrrl when she was here last month, and, to my surprise, she quickly agreed. Here are some factors we came up with that might explain it:

  • At a new table it is less likely that players have already been drinking (though that's not unheard of).
  • Nobody is stuck and therefore playing wildly to try to get back to even.
  • Most players sit down with a mental commitment to playing tight and conservatively, but that discipline tends to break down over time, so it is less of a factor governing play in an established game than a new one.
  • The table maximum buy-in set a limit on what the biggest stacks are at first. But after the game has been going, if players are taking big swings at each other, the total chip count on the table can climb dramatically as the rebuys accumulate.

Given those considerations, and now that I've taken the time to think it through, I have decided that on the rare occasions that I am offered the choice between a game just getting started and one of the already established ones, I will hastily select the latter.

Interestingly, the opposite may hold true online. In the current issue of Poker Pro magazine, Chris "Fox" Wallace discusses the life cycle of online poker tables. (Actually, this is what brought the whole subject back to mind and prompted me to write about it.) Again, this is not something I had really considered before, but he makes a good case that it is often profitable to be the first or one of the first to start or join a new online table. This is because the fishy players are impatient and will tend to sit down wherever they can find an open seat without waiting. They do not look for particular weak opponents to play with. They do not bother checking the lobby for table stats of average pot size, number of players seeing the flop, etc. So if you can be there right when they first log on, you can be the one to take their money. As Wallace puts it, when the other sharks smell blood in the water, it will be because you have been dining.

So take heed, and choose your table accordingly.

3 comments:

Matthew Yauch said...

I've definitely noticed this when going to play cash but didn't have any real answers to why or how. To me it was just a perception I had, I figured it may have just been luck of the draw and I didn't get weak loose players at a new table. It all makes sense now...

The max buyin doesn't even seem to matter since usually when I start a new table very, very few players (i.e. only me) ever buy in the max. $1/$3 with a $300 max most people just buy in for the $100 to grind and *may* go back to their wallets.

bastinptc said...

Very instructive. For the most part, playing live, I have opted for a new table, or one where the stacks are not already to the ceiling. The thinking is that I don't want to play deep stack poker when I am not as endowed. I now see that this attitude is not taking other table dynamics into consideration. Thanks.

The online strategy also makes sense.

Anonymous said...

I agree with all of your reasons but why not add one of my own!

I think a HUGE factor is that when you are new to a game already running the players tend to focus less on you and more on the people they have been sitting with for hours.

I know that when I play live I always have to remind myself to start watching the new guy.

For instance, I figure out that seats 2 and 3 should be my targets and seats 1 and 8 are the tough players I dont want to tangle with.

Sometimes it takes a full orbit or 2 for me to realize that while I definitely saw the guy in seat 5 sit down a half hour ago I have yet to start making any mental notes on him at all. Keep in mind that this is all happening with me in seat 4!!!

Maybe its just me but I feel like this is a natural tendency for most since I generally am SUPER conscience of watching my opponents closely.

Thoughts?