I'm watching the Aussie Millions Cash Game Invitational while I eat lunch. This rather remarkable pot-limit Omaha hand was featured.
Andrew Robl and Patrik Antonius get it all in on the flop. As you can see, Robl is a huge underdog to Antonius's monster draw.
They agree to run the turn and river four times, each being worth one quarter of the pot.
#1:
Antonius fails to catch any of the, oh, 87 or so cards that could come to make his straight or flush, so Robl's unimproved aces take it.
#2:
Antonius makes a flush on the turn, but Robl catches one of his five outs to make a full house on the river.
#3:
Antonius again misses all of his draws, and Robl get an unneeded straight just to rub it in.
#4:
Antonius makes the nut straight on the turn, but Robl hits a runner-runner spade flush!
One of the two men is happy about this outcome:
The combined probability of winning four out of four times when starting with a hand that has only a 27% chance of coming out ahead is about 0.5%. Are we supposed to believe that this happened just by random variance?
It's rigged, I tell you, RIGGED!
Thursday, May 21, 2009
PLO is TOTALLY rigged!
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6 comments:
I had heard about this hand in a random convo and shook it off as "meh, that's poker..."
But to see it the way you've laid it out, now I just want to vomit.
Reminds me of the time PA got it in against Gold on HSP with broadway vs a set of Kings - they ran it three times, and Gold Luckboxxed into 2/3 of the pot.
Ew.
Bart talks to Andrew about the hand a little in one of his excellent pod casts on Deuces Cracked here.
http://www.deucescracked.com/podcasts/deuceplays/podcast.xml
I notice they're not replacing the cards after each deal. Makes the math a little more difficult than (0.27)^4. Still incredibly unlikely..
Parker: It's true that you could rerun the numbers anew after each turn and river are dealt to come up with a new, better estimate of the win probabilities for the next one, because more information is available about what cards are left. But what matters is the probability when the money goes in. At that moment, the best available estimate of the probability of Robl winning all four was about 0.5%.
How does he have five outs on the boat draw?
Four. Sorry.
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