Monday, November 21, 2016

PokerNews article #138

This one is about the psychology of the "near-miss" phenomenon in gambling generally, and in poker specifically.

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/no-cigar-how-to-exploit-the-psychology-of-the-near-miss-26408.htm

1 comment:

Tim Byrne said...

A point worth making (and you do make it obliquely) is that, through simple mathematics, a 'near miss' happens far, far more often than a 'hit'.

For example, on a slot machine, let's say a jackpot is five reels lining up as follows (with Y being a 'jackpot' symbol, and # being a random 'other' :

#####
YYYYY
#####

There are 10 combinations where a Y is one above or one below the 'payline'. That's 10 'near misses' for every hit.

With poker, the same point is clear as well.