How to write a gambling column, part 2

You don't really have to read part 1 of this two-parter (http://pokergrump.blogspot.com/2007/12/how-to-write-gambling-column-part-1.html) to follow what I have to say here. In part 1, I was railing about the particular two theories that a keno-playing columnist touts as being the keys to winning play. The larger point that I had intended to get to, but never did, was the process of writing a regularly published column about a game that is 100% luck, 0% skill, and always a negative expected value on every play.

I'll try to keep on topic better this time around.

I was talking with a friend a couple of weeks ago about Linda "L.J." Zahm, the keno columnist for "Slots Today." As hard as it is to come up with new and different things to write about poker a few hundred times in a row, it would be vastly more difficult to write about strategies for games in which there cannot be any rational strategy. Or at least that's what I opined to my friend.

She, though, being wiser than I am and more in tune with the way that most of humanity thinks, immediately pointed out that I was wrong. In fact, as she noted, it's much easier to come up with material, because it doesn't have to be verifiable!

I quickly realized that she was right, and found myself awash with jealousy. Dang! I want to be writing a blog about playing video keno or slot machines instead of poker! Poker is just too complex, and, besides, there are theories and ideas and strategies that are actually testable, that can be proven to be correct or incorrect, net winners versus net losers, and I would hate to be wrong about them.

But for keno, slots, lottery playing, etc., there is no strategy that is right or wrong!* That gives you enormous flexibility and freedom in what you write, and nobody can ever prove you wrong!

"Today's column is about standing on your left foot while throwing the dice in a craps game. I've tried this several times, and have won enough that I think I'm on to something here!"

Then for your next submission you can write, "Today's column is about standing on your right foot while throwing the dice in a craps game. I've tried this several times, and have won enough that I think I'm on to something here!"

Two weeks later, when your next column is due, you can have another new discovery: "Today's column is about having your girlfriend blow on the dice before you roll them. I've tried this several times, and have won enough that I think I'm on to something here!" And, of course, the one after that would explore the no-blowing theory, with your evidence of several trials.

The possibilities are limited only by your imagination.

Along the same lines, I'd like to offer Ms. Zahm some topics for her video-keno columns, since she may be short of ideas, as evidenced by the fact that the two I've read from her covered basically the same two bogus theories.** There's no charge for these, Ms. Zahm; you may use them without paying me royalties, because that's just how nice of a guy I am:

--Using a $5 bill versus five $1 bills to charge the machine.
--Playing in the morning versus afternoon versus evening versus middle of the night.
--Playing on weekends versus weekdays.
--Showering versus not showering before you play.
--Wearing green versus blue versus red hats while you play.
--Picking your nose while the machine is spitting out the winning numbers versus non-picking.
--Selecting numbers based on family members' birth dates versus the birth dates of Hollywood celebrities.
--Using astrology versus consulting a psychic as methods of predicting the winning numbers.
--Praying to Jesus versus Buddha for your selected numbers to hit.
--Pressing the "play" button really forcefully versus pressing it very lightly, just enough to make it go.
--Sacrificing a live chicken and smearing its blood on the video keno machine before playing, versus smearing the blood on your face and arms, versus no smearing at all (cuz you've always got to have a scientific control group, ya know).

With each of these you could write a column about why you think it should work, along with a description of what happened when you tried it "several times" (which Ms. Zahm unquestionably believes is all you need to test a gaming theory). However, with the chicken-blood thing, you may have to move to a different casino for each trial, because security will probably 86 you fairly soon after the squawking ends.***

Of course, anybody with a lick of rational thinking ability already knows that any of these things would have exactly the same long-term expected value as Ms. Zahm's nutty ideas about number clusters and machine resetting. But clearly her readership is not composed of people who think very hard about the plausibility of the material they're presented. If they were, Ms. Zahm would be out of a job real fast.

In fact, it's safe to say that anybody who enjoys, appreciates, and/or puts stock in what Ms. Zahm has to say about how to beat keno must, by definition, be just as stupid and clueless about the nature of randomness as Ms. Zahm proves herself to be every time she sits down to write her next installment.

I suppose it's easy work, if you can get it.


*That's not quite true. In most casino games, some ways of betting have larger or smaller house edges. With most slot machines, e.g., your expected return is at least a little bit larger (or, more accurately, a little bit less negative) if you always put in the maximum allowable bet, because this entitles you to a proportionately larger jackpot if you hit the miracle combination. But all such basic strategy can fit onto a 3 x 5 card, and once you've stated those facts, as a columnist, you're out of advice that can actually help or hinder "winning" play.

**Incidentally, I should be something of an expert at keno, because I was once, long ago, actually married to a woman whose maiden name was "Keno." Yep. Absolutely true. Apparently a French ancestor, with a name something like "Quineau," had it phonetically Americanized by a bureaucrat upon his entry at Ellis Island. I submit that that history give me just as much authority and credibility to write about keno as Ms. Zahm has.

***Have you ever wondered where the term "86" (for expelling and banning a person from a business establishment) came from? I've wondered that every time I've heard it. I just now tried looking it up, and found that there are many theories, apparently none of them with conclusive supporting evidence. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/86_(number), about halfway down the page.