Life is all about the EV (expected value)

-EV: Having the tread suddenly separate from my right front tire at 65 mph on I-15 on my way home from Bill's.

+EV: Having no traffic around me when this occurred, so no resulting collision.

+EV: Driving a Honda Prelude, which, soon after I bought it 16 years ago, was dubbed by Car and Driver magazine as the "best-handling car for under $30,000." It has proven this with flying colors in a few emergency situations in our time together, and tonight was another. It remained unbelievably stable and controllable for having a front tire suddenly blow out, and I had no difficulty at all pulling off onto the shoulder and stopping without panic or incident. In fact, it was so perfectly under control at all times that I was stunned when I inspected the damage and found that the problem was not a loosened wheel, as I had guessed, but an absolutely shredded tire.

-EV: I was about 100 yards past the Sahara exit, which would have been very handy if I could have used it. I decided it was too dangerous to try to back up to get off of the interstate that way, and much too far to the next exit (Charleston) to proceed.

+EV: I have the original spare tire, fully inflated, which has been waiting in the trunk for 16 years for its moment on the stage.

-EV: When my car was stolen last year, the thieves apparently decided to keep the lug wrench before abandoning the car in North Las Vegas--a fact of which I have been blissfully unaware until now. Spare tire, yes. Jack, yes. Lug wrench, no.

+EV: I have a friend whom I can call even at 2:00 in the morning to rescue me, and I have a working cell phone with a good signal.

-EV: She discovers that she, too, is missing a lug wrench from her trunk.

+EV: I carry a yellow pages phone book in the car, and quickly locate a nearby towing service that will come change the tire for me.

-EV: Highway shoulders are terribly dangerous places. Lots of people get killed every year when drunk/crazy/distracted/sleeping/swerving drivers plow into disabled cars and/or their owners.

+EV: By happenstance, I have come to a stop at the very beginning of a construction zone, so there is a row of those concrete barricades that I can hop over, providing me quite decent protection from such accidents while I wait.

-EV: Soon after I call for the tow truck, a homeless guy comes up the embankment and chooses a spot about 15 yards from me as the place where he will (1) drink his bottle of booze, (2) apparently spend the night, and (3) engage in a loud argument with somebody unseen, either imaginary or hidden in the rocks and trees below. He doesn't give me any specific reason to think that he's a threat to me, but since I'm carrying about $1500 cash, this definitely adds to my level of discomfort.

+EV: I habitually have on my person implements adequate for very reasonable self-defense if necessary. 'Nuff said.

-EV: I really wish I had used the restroom at the casino before leaving, instead of deciding that it could wait until I get home.

+EV: About 45 minutes and $55 later, I'm on my way again.

Overall, it was yet another unpleasant and annoying detour and obstacle in my life, but there are all sorts of ways in which it could have turned out much, much worse.