Just a few days ago I questioned the accuracy of the "poker fact" given as ESPN's broadcast of the World Series of Poker went to a commercial. I wouldn't have thought they would screw it up two weeks in a row--but they surprised me.
This week they said, "When starting with two suited cards, the odds of making a flush are 118-1."
No.
The odds of flopping a flush are 118:1. But the odds of making a flush, assuming one sees all five board cards, are 6.4%, or about 15:1.
I wonder who ESPN is using as poker consultants for this stuff. Whoever it is, they need to fire him and hire me instead.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Another WSOP non-fact
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3 comments:
He was confused and then he remembered, "Oh, yeah - I have millions of dollars. I'll vote Republican."
Apropos of nothing:
Why did people start stating probabilities in this way: "6.4%, or about 15:1"?
Clearly, it should be "6.4%, or about 1:15."
No wonder ESPN gets confused.
Yeah, we're all definitely sloppy in that regard, freely mixing "odds of" something happening with "odds against" something happening. But in most cases everybody understands each other anyway.
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