Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Magically delicious

Words cannot describe how much I love this sneak peek of the new poker show, "The Big Game":

Found at Pokerati, here.

Here's the ugly math. Hellmuth is 86% to win on the flop if they run it once.

Using that as my p value, and the binomial probability calculator here, if they run it twice, Hellmuth has a 74% probability of winning it both times, a 24% probability of winning it once, and a 2% probability of losing both times.

If they run it three times, Hellmuth has a 64% probability of winning all three, a 31% probability of winning exactly two of them, a 5% probability of winning exactly one of them, and less than a <1% probability of losing them all.

If they run it four times, Hellmuth has a 55% probability of winning all four, a 36% probability of winning exactly three of them, a 9% probability of winning exactly two of them, a 1% probability of winning exactly one of them, and a less than 1% probability of losing all four.

In other words, for Hellmuth to end up as badly as you see happen here was a 99:1 shot when the money went in on the flop--a bad beat indeed, and there's nobody I'd rather see it happen to.


Dang. Seems that they changed its status to private on YouTube, so the embed code doesn't work either here or at Pokerati now. Sorry.

Further update, June 11, 2010

A new link, suggested in the comments, now works and I have embedded it in place of the original one.


gadzooks64 said...

I just watched that a few minutes ago myself.

A whole boatload of awesome in that short clip.

I personally loved Negreanu giving out the high fives afterward.

Lance said...

Dangit, they made the video private. I can't see it.

Alex said...

New link for it.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Alex!