Tuesday, November 08, 2011

Difficult decision

We are here once again with one of our occasional "you decide" series. I'll describe the situation the best that I can, let you figure out what you'd do and submit a comment committing yourself to it if you'd like, then in about 24 hours I'll post the end of the story.


My friend Donna (@Cure_MTM on Twitter, Utah State Director for the Poker Players Alliance) was in town for today's induction of Linda Johnson into the Poker Hall of Fame and a Venetian Deep Stack Extravaganza tournament tomorrow, and she was at the Venetian, so that's what I chose as the poker venue du jour in order to catch up with her.

Under-the-gun guy limped. I was next and raised to $8 with A-Q offsuit. I picked up a total of five callers, which was not unusual at this loose-passive table. Pot $45 after rake. Flop was Q-8-4 with two club, of which I had none. First guy checked. I had been prepared to give up on the hand if I missed the flop, because it's just not profitable to play into that many opponents from out of position without having connected. But with top pair/top kicker and not really any draws to worry about except for the clubs, I felt comfortable taking a solid whack at it. In fact, in two previous almost identical situations over the previous 30 minutes or so I had done the same with no opposition--once with an overpair, and once with A-K on a king-high flop, both from first or second position.

Of course, that history cuts both ways. On the one hand, it has proven that these people won't try to fight back very often. On the other hand, if they're paying attention, they might think that I'm continuation-betting every time whether I hit or not--which happens not to be true, but they can't know that, since I didn't show the other times that I took it down.

It is folded to the button. He's the oldest player at the table, relatively tight, but not a classic rock. He has been verbal about how card-dead he has been, and even changed seats once just to try to get dealt better hands. He hesitates a bit, then rather suddenly picks up all his chips and plops them down in the pot. The others fold back to me.

So the question is, simply, call or fold?


Addendum

Sorry, I left out the critical information of his stack sizes. His all-in would be another $102 to me on top of my $35 bet. I have $350 or so in front of me.


Addendum 2

Wow, I must be having a stroke or something--I left out my bet size, too. I bet $35 on the flop. Apologies, all. I'm usually better at describing things than this. (There is actually an explanation, though a lame one. I started this as an all-in-one story, and only later decided to make it a question-and-answer style. I moved the numbers stuff to the second part, forgetting that that data is crucial to readers making a cogent decision.)


26 comments:

matt tag said...

Title of post is lying - this is not that difficult a decision, IMO. I fold. I also say something like "I'm giving you lots of respect here, sir, and folding top pair", to see if I can get any information.

What are you beating? I doubt he's tilt-bluffing his entire stack, so he's doing it for value, at least in his mind. He has the same hand as you some of the time, and the rest of the time he has 88 or 44. Is he getting all in with KQ? I don't think so. His profile (as you describe it) doesn't sound like the type to shove a draw, though he might be (the key thing he is whether the queen was one of the clubs or not. Can he have KcQc or is the Qc on the table?).

So you're ahead of nothing, behind the sets, tying sometimes, and even KcQc (if it's possible) is like 46% against you.

Eddie said...

Sucks if he has it, but I call. He aggressively put his money into the pot => WEAK. He hesitated a little (likely involuntarily) => WEAK. Beyond that, I think you are getting too good a price to fold since you already have it in your head that he is possibly bluffing. You don't state stack sizes, but let's assume you are getting 2:1 to call. He just needs to be taking this line with a hand you beat 1/3 of the time to be profitable for you to call. For every QQ, 88, 44, Q8, 84 (I think he raises PF with AA and KK), he's got KQ, QJ, A8, which is good enough.

arniejokin said...

3 possibles here, considering he is probably not a total bluff. His hand is either 1) a weaker Q, likely KQ or QJ/10, Q8 for 2 pair is possible but unlikely. 2) a set of 4s or 8s. 3) a flush draw. Given the number of people in the pot, to have the flush draw and given his tight nature, I would expect a weak ace type draw which you are strong fab against. So out of the 3 the only real concern where you are a massive dog is nr2. I say call.

THETA Poker said...

Can you tell us roughly how much of an overbet the shove was? Thanks.

FWIW, I'd probably call up to twice the pot, putting him on a flush draw. Beyond that, I'm not sure.

There are some who call me... Tim said...

I'd call. It seems to me that he is either trying to buy it or has mid-pair and is trying to chase everybody away.

This may go against his previous somewhat tight play, but if his patience is at an end he might take the chance to grab a decent pot. That, or he might be taking advantage of the reputation of being somewhat tight and going for it.

MorningThunder said...

My first instinct would be to call. Depending of course on the amount he raised. I have seen so many players in the same situation as you described him, finally getting a piece of a flop or a decent pocket pair on a relatively benign board making that exact move. I think you are ahead here. KQ seems a good fit. A8 99 TT or the nut flush draw fit as well.

Rakewell said...

Sorry, I left out the critical information of his stack sizes. His all-in would be another $102 to me on top of my $35 bet. I have $350 or so in front of me.

NT (aka Cardgrrl) said...

You didn't say how big your "whack" at the pot was, only mentioning later that his bet was $102 on top of yours. It might be helpful to edit the post to include both the amount of your post-flop bet and the stack sizes in the flow of the narrative, I think.

I'm with Matt Tag on the fold, given the stack sizes. You've made a more-than-3/4 pot bet, the player you describe is not shoving there without a really strong hand.

Worst case scenario: you fold a chop. But I bet even in that case the villain has a club redraw and you don't.

Dr. Hood said...

You have to call.

Rakewell said...

Wow, I must be having a stroke or something--I left out my bet size, too. I bet $35 on the flop. Apologies, all. I'm usually better at describing things than this.

Rakewell said...

Wow, I must be having a stroke or something--I left out my bet size, too. I bet $35 on the flop. Apologies, all. I'm usually better at describing things than this.

Mike Heffner said...

Calling $102 when the pot's 45+35+35+102...$217....

Logically, he should never have something you're in good shape against - TPTK shouldn't be all that great here.

In the real world, people can do silly things - monkey off with KQ or JJ here, try to blow you off a chop, or don't realize the odds you're getting to call regardless of how "strong" their shove is.

Cry call and get there against his two pair? I'd have a hard time folding IRL unless I got a good read from villain.

With this many players to get through, it's likely you'll get flatted, if not jammed into, when you lead this flop b/c it's hard for you to have more than one pair here.

The Neophyte said...

Seems like a semi bluff with flush draw to me. Definitely possible he set mined with 44 or 88 but I can also see him with A8 or A4 of clubs (whatever non club is on the board)and pushing with a pair and a draw. I'd have a hard time laying it down considering you have to call 102 for pot of about 215. I doubt he has QQ considering he didn't reraise you. People getting bad cards tend to overvalue good cards when they finally get them, at least I seem to.

jimp220 said...

I put the old guy on a weak Queen or a club draw. If he had two pair he would have called quicker. Got to call here, pot odds and all.

Anonymous said...

I would have to call. I'm not sure he would shove a set here. I think he would call and let you take another stab at it if he thinks you have the hand you actually do have. If he has a set and is afraid of someone hitting the flush I guess this prices them out but even if he calls anyone between him on the button and you is still putting in $35 into a $115 pot to chase the flush in which the set is a 75/25 favorite so you think he would want the flush to chase. Hence I say he has seen you buy a couple pots in the past half hour and is thinking you are trying to buy another with a c-bet. He has a weaker queen and does not believe you and doesn't want to see a king or ace on the turn or is on the flush draw, hoping you fold but has outs incase you call. Besides, sounds like you are up for the night so why not gamble...it worked for Bemba Sunday night.
Lindy99

matt tag said...

I change my answer - this looks like a pot-odds call. I gave him 88,44,AQ,KQ,Q8s and 2 clubs as my range. If you take out KQo, it's still a pretty favorable call.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

26,730 games 0.001 secs 26,730,000 games/sec

Board: Qc 8c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.964% 33.96% 11.01% 9077 2942.00 { AdQh }
Hand 1: 55.036% 44.03% 11.01% 11769 2942.00 { 88, 44, AcKc, AQs, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, As5s, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KQs, Q8s, AQo }

AdamK said...

Call. My arguments have been made by others above. Hunch: he's taking a swing at it.

geezer said...

he either has you beat, tied or a flush draw....I'd fold and wait for a better spot to put my 104 in ... it's why I love limit but have to make the switch to nl

Michael said...

I make the call, but I'm not thrilled with it.

Apollo said...

I think matt tag got it on his second try. You'd rather have just picked it up without a fight, but since the old guy wants to fight, bring it. 2 pair is unlikely, you're only really behind a flopped set, and that also feels unlikely. Feels more like "pair and flush draw" or "overcard and flush draw". Call and let the stats fall where they may.

Texas Redeemer said...

I fold. Old nits don't bluff enough. It's QQ, AQ, KK or AA 75% of the time.

dmbfan41cnLV said...

Classic tough spot... from your commentary it sounds like he's become frustrated and impatient and is shoving with what sounds like a club draw. Gotta call.

On a side note - why such a small opening raise pre? Unless there is something unique to this particular table's tendencies, $8 is a tiny raise to open with in early position to begin with - and it becomes even smaller given that there was an UTG limper....

Look forward to reading the results tomm... as always thanks for sharing.

Glenn said...

OK I'm late to the party here, but absent some read that V will never make this play with a club draw I think you have to call getting better than 2-1. There will be times when he'll roll over a set, and times when his crubs get there, but you'll win this hand more than 1 out of three times.

Anonymous said...

I say that you always call the first all in of someone who just changed seats.

Anonymous said...

*GRUNCH*

"He's the oldest player at the table, relatively tight, but not a classic rock. He has been verbal about how card-dead he has been, and even changed seats once just to try to get dealt better hands. He hesitates a bit, then rather suddenly picks up all his chips and plops them down in the pot. The others fold back to me."

because of this have ranged him wider than the usual "old guy at teh table":

have included 99 TT JJ because just one over and he may have been thinking finally a pocket pair, if not Ace on the flop "I'm goin with it!" Also QT+ queens and Q9suited coz he haz TP and this is the best flop he has seen....yea you COULD have AA KK but could be betting a fd or cbetting and whiffed.

have widened the flush draws because hes in LP so likely to flush mine with Ax and gutter ball suited connectors...omfg fd, arrr in!


Board: Qd 8c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.327% 63.29% 04.04% 45112 2878.50 { AdQh }
Hand 1: 32.673% 28.63% 04.04% 20411 2878.50 { JJ-88, 44, AQs, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KQs, KcJc, KcTc, Q9s+, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }


cliffs - your a 63/28 favorite in my opinion so snappysnapper call

LOLfolding said...

Calling. Frustrated, seat hopping nits will get it in here with surprisingly little, especially if he's observant enough to think you've been c-betting air lately. I'm not shocked if you're behind, but I'm not surprised either.