Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Count the outs

Playing a tournament online just now, I had this mildly interesting situation come up:


I had Ac-Kh. He had 9d-9s. The flop was Qd-Qh-10h, and the turn was 3h.

Today's quiz: How many outs did I have on the river to win? Submit your answers in the comments. First one to get it right (must include list of the cards that win for me, or other comparable explanation of your answer) wins...my eternal, undying admiration.

Caution: It's tricky (else I wouldn't be posting it, right?).



Addendum, August 23, 2012

Here's how the hand ended:




16 comments:

CovertAgent said...

19 outs.

3 As
3 Ks
4 Js
3 10s
Hearts: 8 7 6 5 4 2

Russ Fox said...

I don't think it's that tricky. I count 19 outs:

3 aces (give you two pair Aces up or better--Ah gives you flush);
3 kings (give you two pair)
4 Jacks (give you straight or flush)
3 tens (give you two pair, ace kicker plays)
6 other hearts (8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 2)

That sums to 19.

Anonymous said...

Any non 9 heart, any of A, K, J, 10... 21 outs

Anonymous said...

Almost certainly wrong, but 18 outs.

Any Ace, King, or Jack, or 10.

With the Aces or Kings, you hit top pair (2 pair with the Qs on the board). So 6 there.

Three of the Jacks give you a straight. The 4th gives you a flush (more on that below).

Any 10 (2) counterfeits his 9's, so you have 2 pair on the board (Q's & 10's) plus A kicker.

Any non-9 heart gives you a winning flush. It's 6 because you have 1, there are 3 on the board, so 9 remaining. Of the remaining 9, the 9h gives him a full house, and we've already counted the Ah & Jh above.

Anonymous said...

So... You have 3 Aces, 3 Kings, and 3 Tens for higher two pairs. All 4 Jacks give you a winning straight. Then you have the 2,4,5,6,7,8 of Hearts for a winning flush. So I get 19... Maybe?

Tarpie said...

Tc-Td-Th for two-pair with higher kicker
Jc-Jd-Jh-Js for straight
Ad-Ah-As for higher two pair
Kc-Ks-Ks for higher two pair

So 13 outs.

What head slapper did I miss?

-k said...

Ah, Jh, 8h, 7h, 6h, 5h, 4h, 2h make your flush (8)
(didn't give you the 9h as it boats him up)
Ad, As give you two pair (2)
Kd, Ks, Kc give you two pair (3)
Jd, Js, Jc gives you Broadway (3)

I come up with 16. Did I miss something?

Tarpie said...

Ha. Head slap on the flushes.

So additionally:
2h-4h-5h-6h-7h-8h make flushes, for a total of 19 outs.

Crash said...

I am trepidated!!
But I think:
You cannot be 100% sure to win. He has 2 ways to get a boat. Nothing you can river will beat a boat. So you have zero outs if he boats.
If you think he won't improve, then you do have some outs, but that is kind of one-sided.

Eddie said...

19 by my count:
3xA
3xK
4xJ
3xT
6 hearts not counted above (8 through 2, excluding the 3)

Rakewell said...

I declare "CovertAgent" to be the winner.

I wonder how many would have gotten it right in some more casual situation that didn't make you so careful (e.g., the tipoff that it might be tricky). *I* got it wrong the first time through, which is why I decided to post it.

Crash said...

I demand a recount!

sevencard2003 said...

i too counted 19 outs, but when i went to post, i seen i wasnt the first to comment, as id hoped. but i figured out it was 19 before reading ANY comments

Anonymous said...

13

grrouchie serge said...

I know the contest is over, however the correct answer is 0 because you folded to a check/raise on the flop or turn.

You never saw the river and as such you had 0 outs as you technically were not holding your cards any longer.

However, if you still had your hand and didn't fold like a sissy girl then all those that were correct, are correct.

Rakewell said...

Grrouchie:

To see how keen your powers of prognostication are, see the addendum to the post that I just put up, including a snapshot of the completely hand history.

In a word, you FAIL!

We were both all in pre-flop.