That's why, sir

As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another. Proverbs
27:17, New International Version.

My razz game has advanced another small step. A hand I played a couple of days ago illustrates how. It's not rocket science, as they say, and those fluent in the game will probably read this post and think, "Well, DUH!" But it's one level deeper than I had been playing and thinking.

I was dealt (6 2) 3. The action was raised by a player named "Mailfish42" before it got to me. He was showing an 8. I obviously have a better hand than he does. Besides, I'm in late position, and the only players left behind me are a guy showing a 9 and the bring-in, who has a jack. So a raise is practically mandatory here. Mailfish calls.

On 4th street, I get a 7, so I now have (6 2) 3 7. Mailfish has (x x) 8 3. I bet, he calls. Nothing out of the ordinary there.

Fifth street is where it got at least mildly interesting. I was handed a queen, so I have (6 2) 3 7 Q. Mailfish popped into the lead with (x x) 8 3 9. He bet. Up until a couple of weeks ago, I would have thought, "Well, he has a better hand now, so I'll just call." But after watching some better players raise in this kind of spot, and thinking about why they did it, I have come to realize that it's a smart move. I clicked "raise."

Mailfish paused, clearly not expecting this. He even typed in the chat box, "Ha!" and then "Why raise?" I didn't respond. Not my job to give him lessons. Then he called.

Well, Mr. Mailfish, here's why. Yes, if the hand were to end now, you'd win, because your 9-low beats my Q-low. But I know that I need to catch only one more good card to have you beat, and if I do, then you have to catch two more good cards to win--and there are only two more coming. Put another way, if I get any non-pairing card 9 or below, and you don't improve, then I win. If I get an A, 4, or 5, on 6th street, I'll have a made 7-low and be ahead even if you improve so that your 9 is no longer playing. In short, I have a better draw, and I think I'm more likely to have the winning hand by the time all the cards are out. That makes getting more big bets into the pot right now A Good Thing.

Using the fabulous simulator tool found here, I can confirm mathematically what was apparent to me in a non-quantitative way during the hand. Let's assign my opponent, as down cards, two randomly selected different ranks below 8. That gives me about 55% equity in the pot, and him only 45%. Even if he has the best possible hole cards--an ace and a deuce--I still have a narrow edge, 51% to 49%. Those calculations were run without accounting for the dead cards. I actually improve on all measures by about four percentage points when the dead cards are figured in, because they included pairs to two of my good cards (the 6 and 7) but none for his 3 or 8, so he's a little more likely to hit a brick than I am.

Even better, if that 3 secretly paired him, I'm up by a whopping 70%/30% equity, and one more good card will cinch it for me. I'm not relying on that, but it's a consideration.

On 6th street, I think he may have had his eyes opened. I picked up a beautiful ace. He paired his 3. I bet. He said, "mmm," thought a bit, folded, then added, "wp" (which I assume means "well played"). One more card being dealt out was all it took for him to go from questioning and laughing at my raise to complimenting it.

Of course, it could have turned out differently--and often does in razz. But a raise there was unquestionably the right thing to do. Getting an opponent to shovel more money into the pot when I stand a better chance of winning it than he does seems like a no-brainer to me now, though, as I admitted earlier, this insight had escaped me until quite recently. I was focused just on how the cards stood at the moment, rather than trying to peek into the future.

Several days ago I was playing with one of the regular inhabitants of the Stars razz tables, and he watched me put in a similar raise when I was behind but had a better draw. He's an observant fellow, and typed in the chat box after the hand, "You've changed your game." Yes, I have--a little to the better, I think.

I wonder if Mailfish42 has actually figured this out now, or just wrote it off as getting unlucky on 6th street, without learning anything from the experience. I'm hoping the latter.