At Planet Hollywood tonight I had Kc-Qc in the small blind, and limped in with several others. The flop was all clubs. The turn and river didn't bring a fourth club or pair the board, so I felt highly confident I had the best hand. I don't remember how all the betting went, but the guy on the button (on my immediate right) called my largish bet on the turn. This signaled me that he actually had something and might call again on the river, so I bet big again. Nope--he folded.
I showed my cards for free, because the table had just started up, and I wanted to help establish my semi-phony image of only betting if I have the goods. He said, quite plausibly, that he had had the ace of clubs plus an inside straight draw.
He then paused, cocked his head to the side, and was counting with his fingers. After a few seconds, he said, "I had 12 outs."
I just smiled and said, "Can't hit 'em every time."
Of course, what I would really like to have done was stand up, point to him, and shout, "MORON ALERT!"
Twelve outs, dude? Please. Between us and the board, we have six clubs accounted for, leaving seven in the deck. Those would indeed give him the winner, if he actually had the ace. But he seemed to think that hitting his straight draw on the turn or river would also have won him the pot. Uh, nope. Flush still beats a straight in most of your better card rooms.
I can't figure out what 12 cards he was counting. In addition to the seven clubs, he was presumably counting the other three cards that would complete his straight (erroneously)--but that still only makes ten. Maybe he was counting the two jokers, too.
Standard advice for winning poker is to get inside your opponent's head and figure out what he's thinking. But what if your opponent's thought process is an incomprehensible, jumbled mess that you can't decipher even after knowing what his cards were?
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
How many outs?
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6 comments:
Easy. He counted 9 clubs plus 3 for his inside straight draw. He obviously didn't take into account what you had.
That sounds pretty plausible, all right. But it's darn strange, since he had seen my cards at the time he was doing his counting.
It would make sense if he said, "I THOUGHT I had 12 outs."
Ya see? There's your problem grump. You are thinking what would make sense to you, not to your opponent. It's the same as someone yelling,"How could he call there, I represented the flush perfectly?" against the same guy that would miss the African elephant walking across the table. One of the first rules of poker is D.A.I. Don't Assume Intelligence.
Many thoughts go through your head when playing live poker I guess. Just back from the Caribbean Poker Classic 2008 I remember one player especially who was all in preflop with 77 against KQ. The flop was 37Q and on the turn which was a Q the player thought: "Damn I just lost the hand...that lucky fish hit his three of a kind". The player with 77 was me by the way. I never loose overview online, but live poker messes with your brain:-)
On a side note I have recently started a poker article database and would love to post some of your stories from the live tables. If you are interested check out my site at www.pokerbankrollblog.com and write me a line at pokerbrb@gmail.com. If not maybe we can do some link exchange instead.
Best Regards
Mark
Im gonna go out on a limb and say he totally discounted the 5 clubs that were on the board and in your hand.....13 clubs in the deck.....1 ace in his hand...12 outs...easy math
whats the problem?
Rake, I think you are being a bit harsh on this one. Usually, I'm all for attacking idiot logic, but clearly he was explaining why he called your bet by stating that he thought he had 12 outs. Maybe all he said was, "I had 12 outs," but he was obviously referring to what he was thinking during the hand. Either way, he's a tool.
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