Erik Seidel knows

They should have put the "100%" graphic next to Seidel's cards as soon as he was dealt the Mighty Deuce-Four.

Interestingly, Seidel took a little while (maybe ten seconds) to call Selbst's bluff check-raise. When the hand was over, she asked if he had been contemplating a reraise. Clearly he wasn't. She seemed genuinely shocked that he would take any time at all to choose between a call and a fold in that spot. My guess is that Seidel has had third-nut hands beaten a whole lot more times than Selbst has, and hence plays them more cautiously than is her inclination.