I'm sure many of you have already read Daniel Negreanu's explanation in his blog as to why he decided not to play in the first Epic Poker League tournament (or, apparently, any subsequent ones). I'm sure I'm not the only one that was left with the feeling that there is something missing from the explanation.
He may well be right that the league will eventually prove to be just the latest in a long line of failed, high-profile attempts to form a sustainable poker equivalent to the pro golf tour, that its financial structure can't be sustained over the long run unless they manage to get some sort of foot in the door to a U.S.-legal online poker site.
But so what? Why would that make him decide not to play now? There's a substantial overlay (I think it's $400,000 added to the prize pool), and I understand that the casino is taking no money out for itself (though some small fraction goes directly to the dealers). Does Negreanu not like money? It doesn't make sense that he would pass on a +EV opportunity just because the venture may at some unknown time in the future. That would be a good reason not to invest in it as a business, or not to take a leadership role in it if offered. But why not play the tournaments while they're available? It's clear from his Twitter feed that he's not doing anything else at the moment except golfing and catching up on TV shows.
One obvious possibility is that his dislike for Annie Duke is so intense that he will pass up a chance at winning a reasonably lucrative and prestigious tournament in order to avoid having to be civil to her. That's almost surely a factor. But is it the dominant one? If it were, given his history of bluntness, I don't think he'd have any problem saying exactly that in his blog--something like, "I don't like her, I don't want to be around her, and I don't want to support things she's in charge of and making money from." Everybody already knows that that's how he feels, so it's hard for me to believe that he wouldn't come out and say it if that were the core reason he is staying away from the Palms this week.
Which leads me to consider another possibility: he doesn't think it's a +EV situation for him. Consider his description of the field:
The only real difference I see between this league and something like the WPT is:
-much tougher field in the EPL means that even with $400k added most of the field will still be -EV, while the truly elite players, like a Vivek Rajkumar or a Sam Trickett will feast on the bankrolls of lesser skilled pros.
-no real Cinderella stories at the final tables....
For the truly elite players, this is free money for them in terms of EV, but the vast majority of entrants are just not good enough to show a profit against this super tough field.
I suspect that he has looked over the competition and decided that, good as he is, his edge on the field, if any, is too small to be worth the cost of entry. After all, if he deemed himself to be a "truly elite player" comparable to Rajkumar or Trickett, surely he would jump at the chance to "feast on the bankrolls of lesser skilled pros" and get himself some "free money." If I'm right, this, understandably, would not be an explanation he would be eager to state explicitly and publicly.
My conclusion is that the most likely real reason that Negreanu is battling across golf greens this week instead of green felt is that he has taken a good, hard look at the field and his own ranking within it, and had to conclude that he was one of the "lesser skilled pros," one who is "just not good enough to show a profit against this super tough field."
I don't think there's anything shameful about that. On the contrary, in order to be successful, every poker player has to be able to accurately take his own measure and that of his competition. If Negreanu has done so here and decided that he's better off waiting for tournaments with more dead money, hey, I can't blame him. I just think it's kind of an interesting conclusion to reach when it's something that he hasn't expressed directly, yet seems the most likely truth.
Incidentally, speaking of super-elite players and tough fields, check out this call made by Erik Seidel a couple of hours ago as I write this. Phenomenal!
Posts
4 comments:
Maybe there's some kind of non-compete in his deal with PokerStars pertaining to new commercial poker leagues.
I thought about that briefly, and can't rule it out, but I doubt it, primarily because several other Stars players were there: Jason Mercier, Eugene Katchalov, Vanessa Selbst, Chad Brown, Victor Ramdin, Barry Greenstein, and Vanessa Rousso.
I am a big Negreanu fan (and I know you aren't by some posts) but in this instance I think Daniel is really wrong. I read his post yesterday and the first thing that popped in my mind was he was reaching for reasons not to play in the new league. His dislike for Annie is well known and in this case without actually coming out and saying it he was searching for reasons not to play. I think he needs to put aside his and Duke's distaste for each other and play one of the other events. It's like Ivey not playing in the WSOP. It didn't accomplish anything.
interesting in the reporting of the seidel hand they tell us ". All Rheem could do was muck and began to count down the chips to send over. Seidel's stack was counted down to 740,000 and Rheem sent it over."
But their rules clearly state that all cards must be turned up when a player is all in and there is no further action ......
Post a Comment