Friday, November 13, 2009

Bad luck at the WSOP

Yesterday I finally finished watching the final table of the main event of the World Series of Poker. I noticed, as I suppose everybody must have, how many of the eliminations occurred on bad beats.

I was sufficiently impressed with this fact that I went back and tabulated the last hand of each of the eight players voted off the island, with the percentage probability of winning as given by the on-screen graphics when the money went in. They are listed in order of elimination, with the ousted player listed first in each pair:

Akenhead 3-3 (20%)
Schaffel 9-9 (80%)

Schaffel A-A (83%)
Buchman K-K (17%)

Ivey A-K (75%)
Moon A-Q (25%)

Begleiter Q-Q (70%)
Moon A-Q (30%)

Shulman 7-7 (59%)
Saout A-9 (41%)

Buchman A-5 (56%)
Moon K-J (44%)

Saout 8-8 (54%)
Cada A-K (46%)

Moon Q-J (48%)
Cada 9-9 (52%)

So only Akenhead and Moon failed to get the last of their chips in as a favorite; six out of eight went out with the best hand. That's just kind of unsettling.

You can also get a sense for how often Darvin Moon got a lot of chips in as an underdog; in all three cases where he eliminated an opponent, as well as in his own final hand, it was when he was taking the worst of it.

CK over at the BWOP blog has some cogent thoughts about what all of this means. Go read her. I'm just showing you the numbers.

1 comment:

BWoP said...

Thanks for the shout-out :-)