Wednesday, September 29, 2010

New team

My last-longer-bet team from last year's poker blogger winter gathering had to be modified when, sadly, Jen announced that she had to withdraw. With the huge, generous overlay provided by PokerStars, I wanted to have an entry still. By happy coincidence, Grange95 had just emailed me the night before to let me know that he'd be in town for the event. It seemed natural to invite him to fill the void, and both he and my other remaining teammate, Katie, were mutually accepting.

A triumvirate having thus been formed, the challenge remaining was to come up with the perfect team name. During the BARGE meeting here in August, Katie had been part of a team called "Inglourious Donkeys," a name so good I seethed with jealousy at not having thought of it. I hoped to do as well, but such things are not my strong suit. Yesterday I brainstormed a short list of suggestions, as did Grange. I liked one of his and mentioned it to Cardgrrl, who came up with a variant on it, which I then in turn shared with Grange and Katie, to their united approbation.

The three of us shall therefore officially be known as:

The Knights Who Say 'Nit'

I'm sorry, but if you don't see what's funny about that, you are beyond help, so please don't ask, as I will look upon you with nothing but contempt and pity, you empty-headed animal food trough wiper.
We're knights of the Round Table,
We dance whene'er we're able.
We do routines and chorus scenes
With footwork impec-cable.

Guess the casino, #645






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.



Answer: Monte Carlo

Cheating--some gray and not-so-gray areas

http://www.pokerplayernewspaper.com/content/cheating-9967

I saw this column by Ashley Adams a couple of weeks ago in the print version and liked it a lot. This kind of ethical questioning needs a lot more attention than I think it gets among poker players. I wrote to the author and pointed him to some of the posts I've written on exactly the questions he raises. Follow-up column hasn't been printed yet.

Thanks to Sauza for the Twitter message that alerted me that the column was now up on the intertubes.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Guess the casino, #644






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Hooters

Monday, September 27, 2010

What's in a screen name? #8




I think this one will only be amusing to us fans of "Arrested Development."

Big hand



It's not often you can win a pot worth 38 big bets.

I have no idea why that third player called on the river. He couldn't even beat the pair of 7s the other guy was showing!

It put me at the top of the leaderboard for now:



Still very early, though. We'll see if I can hold on.


Update:

Didn't last long. This one took me down a long way. I got four bets in three ways pre-flop. Quads bet flop, I raised, he just called. Turn check-check. Bet and call on river. So I think I lost the minimum. Still above average.




Update 2:

This flop was a pleasant surprise to a mediocre big-blind hand. Sadly, one bet and nobody wanted to play any more.




Update 3:

Out with nothing. Got moved to a table populated with maniacs whose strategy was to start with garbage and get lucky. They succeeded. The end.

Guess the casino, #643






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Boulder Station

Suggestion

I think the first person to sign up for a sit-and-go tournament should be rewarded with, say, an extra 10% starting chip stack, or maybe a 10% reduction in the buy-in. Sometimes you sit for a long time waiting for others to show up. Acting as a catalyst to get the game started is certainly worth something to the online sites to have people willing to do that. That's how it would be if I ran the world.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Guess the casino, #642






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Aria

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Guess the casino, #641






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Tuscany

Friday, September 24, 2010

"Guest gauge"

I just learned of a feature at the online Las Vegas Sun that I had never heard of before: The "Guest Gauge." It summarizes how busy the weekend is likely to be due to conventions and other factors.

I do periodically look at the Las Vegas Convention Authority's web site to see what big meetings might be occurring where, but it's kind of a hassle, because most of the conferences listed are tiny little nothings that won't affect where good poker games are likely to be found. This Sun feature looks, at first glance, as if it will be faster and better for that purpose. Now if only they had an RSS feed for when it is updated....

Hat tip: Vegas Chatter.

Small win





I played at the Venetian this afternoon. I played spectacularly badly. Two all-in calls, both of them in situations where I should have known that it was impossible for me to be good (in fact, where I did know that at some level below the threshold of deniability) stacked me. They were both the kinds of calls that when I see them made by others make me wonder, "What was he thinking?" They were the kind of calls that I usually rely on to make my money--when I'm on the other side of them. Just unforgivable. Haven't screwed up that badly in a long time (thankfully).

I came home (at least give me credit for realizing that my play reeked and I should not continue playing NLHE for hundreds of dollars) and as rehab I jumped into a little HORSE tournament. Only seven players, so smaller even than a single-table sit-and-go. But there was still enough money to care about, since it was a $33 buy-in, while the SNGs I usually play are just $5 or $10.

I winz it.

I feel a little better now.

Guess the casino, #640






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Plaza

Year of the....what?

In March of this year, Vanessa Selbst won the NAPT event at Mohegan Sun and Annie Duke won the NBC Heads Up Poker Championship. In April, Liv Boeree won the EPT San Remo event. On the basis of those three wins, the meme quickly spread in the poker media that 2010 would be "The Year of the Woman."

Here's a partial list of people/entities/blogs/outlets that affirmatively shared in this assertion (i.e., I'm excluding those that simply noted that others were using the phrase, or discussed it with evident skepticism):

Taylor Kent (for the Cake Poker blog)
Bernard Lee (for ESPN)
Ty Stewart (WSOP VP)
Kevin Mathers (Pokerati)
Jennifer Newell (WomanPokerPlayer.com)
Wicked Chops Poker
Ruff Poker (unsigned article)
Trishelle Cannatella (Absolute Poker blog)
Dr. Pauly (Tao of Poker blog)

Please note that (1) this is a woefully partial and completely arbitrary list, made mostly of the ones that popped up most obviously in a Google search, or links from those, and (2) I'm not implying any criticism for use of the phrase.

But now let's note what else has happened this year: David Williams won the WPT Championship in April. LeRon Washington won the WPT Invitational in February. Phil Ivey won his eighth bracelet at the WSOP in June. And last night, Dwyte Pilgrim won the WPT Borgata Open. What do these four men have in common? They're all black.

So if three women winning major poker tournaments in one year makes it "The Year of the Woman," surely four blacks winning major poker tournaments in one year makes it "The Year of the Black." Right?

Of course, when Ivey won his bracelet, that already made three for the year--the same as the number of women winners, and that didn't result in any chorus of "The Year of the Black." So I'm guessing that adding a fourth to the roster won't, either.

But why not? Being black has every bit as much to do with being a good poker player--or being unable to be a good poker player--as being a woman does: They're equally irrelevant factors.

So why do people like Duke and Jennifer Harman and Kathy Liebert have to wrestle with the qualified compliment of being said to be among the best female poker players, while nobody speaks of Ivey as being among the best black poker players?

Why do so many pay close attention and write news stories and give interviews to the "last woman standing" in the WSOP Main Event, while nobody (except me) calls attention to the "last black standing"?

Why do so many poker tournament series have a women-only event, but none have a blacks-only event?

And, again, why will so many readily blog/publish about "The Year of the Woman," while, if my prediction is correct, none of the same individuals or corporate entities will make a peep about "The Year of the Black," even though there is objectively a stronger case to be made for the latter than for the former?

There's only one reason I can think of, and it ties all of these things together: Because if you modify the phrase "among the best poker players" with the additional term "black," if you watch to see who is the "last black standing," if you sponsor a blacks-only tournament, or if you call attention to the "Year of the Black," you imply that there's something special, something remarkable about a black person playing poker well. And that, in turn, would imply that blacks are somehow inherently inferior at poker. It comes close to echoing that famous phrase about a performing poodle walking on its hind legs--what's remarkable is not that whether he can do it well, but that he can do it at all.

Everybody instinctively senses that that would be the implication of making any noise at all about race when a member of a minority wins a poker tournament. Furthermore, they know that saying or suggesting that blacks are intrinsically inferior at poker is neither politically nor factually correct. So nothing is said of it.

But obviously, many people have no similar qualms about the same implication as it pertains to women. That is, they see nothing amiss about commenting on how remarkable it is that a woman wins a poker tournament. In order to do that, I think, you have to buy into the premise--consciously or unconsciously--that women can't really be expected to win poker tournaments because they are inherently inferior at the game, and therefore it is newsworthy when it happens.

Here's my challenge to those listed above, as well as everybody else who echoed, adopted, and otherwise approved of "The Year of the Woman" thing: Put up a post or story or essay of equal prominence declaring this to be "The Year of the Black"--or, alternatively, explain why you won't, why you think the former is perfectly OK but the latter unacceptable.

I'll be watching.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Guess the casino, #639






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Mirage

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Guess the casino, #638









To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Harrah's

Poker gems, #389

Mike Caro, in Caro's Most Profitable Hold'em Advice, page 361.


When it comes to raising, position shouldn't just be a concept that you intellectually acknowledge. It should be a primary factor in deciding whether or not to raise. Think about your strategy. If you can't honestly tell me that position is a main consideration every time you think about raising, then I'm betting that you're making much less money at poker than you should.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Guess the casino, #637






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Excalibur

Monday, September 20, 2010

Guess the casino, #636





To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Aria

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Guess the casino, #635






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Aria

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Guess the casino, #634






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Treasure Island

Lucky charms

So it turns out there might be something to the idea of lucky charms after all.

http://www.physorg.com/news195710440.html

What's in a screen name? #7





I love irony.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Self-deception

Several years ago I saw a documentary about Clive Wearing. He was a successful, respected choral conductor, but he contracted a viral encephalitis that damaged his brain in such a way that he became amnestic, unable to form new memories. He has been institutionalized ever since. His odd, terribly sad condition has been the subject of books and documentaries (see the list at the end of that Wikipedia entry), and you really should try to find one of them to learn about him. It will give you a deep sense of appreciation for the role that memory plays in our lives, even though we're usually unaware of it.

For me the saddest, most shocking part of the show was seeing his journals. Wearing experiences "waking up" as if from a coma many, many times a day. He fills not just pages but whole notebooks with scribbled notations that he is finally awake, then a few minutes later that gets crossed out, and another more emphatic notation replaces it, "No, NOW I am really awake." It goes on endlessly.

When I think back on seeing that program, it reminds me of my progression in poker. Early on, I remember thinking what an easy game it was. I would have endorsed Norm MacDonald's quip that no-limit hold'em takes a minute to learn and five minutes to master.

But I have a series of points at which I looked back at how I used to play, how I used to think about the game, and conclude, "Boy, I was really clueless. Good thing I've got it figured out now." Of course, each of those successive points of smug self-confidence later gets replaced with the acknowledgement that, OK, then I didn't really know what I was doing, but now I do. Repeat ad infinitum.

I should fill my own notebooks with such scribbled messages, revealing my own insight and self-awareness, but simultaneously my perverse lack of the same.

I was reminded of all of this by reading an utterly compelling, fascinating, can't-stop-reading-it series of five long blog posts by documentary filmmater Errol Morris, starting here. (I was pointed there by a Twitter message earlier today from Iggy, to whom many thanks.) It's about our lack of self-awareness, or, I suppose more accurately, our inability to detect our own areas of weakness and ignorance. It ranges through history, philosophy, neurology, and psychology. It takes you down the rabbit hole of your consciousness, though, by definition, you can never really be aware of the depth of your own self-deception.

Just like everybody thinks they're a much better driver than those with whom they share the road, nearly all poker players think that they're better than their opponents. I do, too. Am I objectively correct? It's hard to say. All the time I see players whose self-assessment is wildly out of whack with their actual ability. They are operating at a rudimentary level of understanding of poker, but think they've got it all figured out. This doesn't require mind-reading; they'll tell you they've got it nailed down firmly, just before they spew off their chips on a series of horrendously, obviously misguided calls and transparent bluffs. Then they will calmly (or maybe not so much) explain to their opponent exactly what he did wrong.

I wrote about this syndrome three years ago, here. At the end of that post, I link to a Bluff magazine column that Annie Duke wrote. That link doesn't work now, but I found the piece here. I love the story she tells about being a complete novice in poker, with a knowledge of the game so shallow that all she had to work from was a napkin on which her brother, Howard Lederer, had written a list of the starting hands she should play, while folding everything else. When somebody beat her by playing a hand not on the list, she criticized him for not knowing how to play right! (Of course, she had The List, and he didn't, so how could he know?)

Naturally, you shouldn't pay much attention to what I wrote three years ago, because back then, as I can clearly see now in retrospect, I really didn't know what I was doing. Now, however....

A little pimpage




As you all know by now, Cardgrrl has left the poker career behind and is exploring various things in the world of art, especially photography. The photo above, "After the Flood," is her favorite so far (originally published with her commentary and a clickable larger version here).

Taste in art is, obviously, wildly variant. Cardgrrl's favorite images tend to be love-it-or-hate-it matters, as evidenced by the highly polarized comments she gets when she puts one up for review in a Flickr group. This one is no exception. I can't say that I took an instant liking to it, but it has grown on me. Especially when blown up to 24" x 36" and framed, it's pretty cool. (Wish y'all could see that, but her apartment isn't big enough for everybody to visit.) What intrigues me most about it is how the closer you look the more it looks like a painting than a photograph.

Anyway, if that image tickles your fancy at all, I have a favor to ask: Go here and vote for it for a "People's Choice" award. Voting requires three steps: (1) Click on "Vote now." (2) Enter your email address. (3) When you get the confirmation email, follow the link it provides and confirm your vote. Sounds burdensome, I know, but I did it in less than 90 seconds. As far as I can tell, they do not use your email address for anything other than preventing ballot-box stuffing.

If you don't care for the photo, well, that's OK, too. I won't ask you to vote for something you don't like.

Thanks.

Guess the casino, #633






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Santa Fe Station

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Lost Vegas




I finished reading Dr. Pauly's Lost Vegas a month ago, and promised I'd post my thoughts about it, then never did. The reason is simple, though hard to explain. It's because I haven't been able to figure out what to say about it.

Lemme back up and start with the basics. Lost Vegas is Pauly's intensely personal look at the city, framed around the visits he made here between 2005 and 2008. Though there are a few trips for lesser poker events or just for recreation, most of them were to cover the World Series of Poker, at first for hire, then later for his own blog, as it became popular enough to sustain him via the advertising revenue it drew (or at least this is what one surmises).

As a poker guy, I was surprised to find that the parts of the book that were least interesting were the parts about the poker tournaments. That's likely in part because I had followed the WSOP closely enough during the years in question, including at least intermittently on Pauly's blog, that I knew the stories, so there wasn't much new.

But the real, deeper explanation, I believe, for why the book seems to drag a bit when describing the poker action is that it's no longer so much about Pauly and what he is observing and experiencing as it is about the subject, and there are stretches that become more journalism or history than personal story-telling. The chapter that seemed most out of place was the one about Archie Karas (chapter 32). All of a sudden, Pauly basically disappears as narrator, and we're reading third-hand stories that could have been compiled by anybody. I kept thinking, "C'mon, get back to your own narrative!"

That reaction, I think, is key to understanding what makes most of the book work, and what makes it unlike anything else you have read or ever will read about Vegas: It's Pauly's own story. Nobody else could write it because it didn't happen to anybody else. If you have read his stuff over the years, you know that he has a unique point of view as well as an enviable creative talent for relating it--sometimes deeply insightful, sometimes wickedly funny, sometimes painfully confessional, usually sacrilegious and iconoclastic, always with a keen eye for detail. Most people writing about their lives--even their vacation lives in a place as intrinsically interesting and potentially volatile as Vegas--are, well, boring. Not Pauly. His descriptions of his successes and failures, his adventures, his fears, his devils, his pleasures, his degeneracy, his friendships--these are the book's raison d'etre, and they are a blast to read.

Now let me try to explain why I had trouble figuring out what to write about the book.

First, I've never before read a book in which I know so many of the people described. I am not a deep insider in the poker media circles; I kind of hover around the perimeter, and that's about it. But maybe half of the characters a reader meets in Lost Vegas, including the author, are people whose writing I read regularly, and/or people I've met, worked with, worked for, shared meals with, have as contacts in Outlook or Skype or on my cell phone, played poker with, and a few that I would even call friends. I know most of the real names behind the pseudonyms. I had hoped to somehow parlay this bit of acquaintance into some unique perspective on the book, but nothing ever coalesced in my brain. After a month of letting it simmer, I've given up. The little thrills of "Hey, I know him!" recognition I got from reading about folks in the poker world whose lives have intersected with mine will just have to remain as my own personal pleasures, because I haven't figured out anything to say about them that would be meaningful to anybody else.

But my biggest failing as a writer is this: I wanted to pen a brilliant commentary on why my reaction to Vegas is so profoundly different than Pauly's is. Lost Vegas is all about his love/hate relationship with the city, how he loves the people with whom he interacts here and loves all of the things he can indulge in here that aren't part of his everyday life--but, simultaneously, how those temptations are toxic to him, and how he can't stop the indulgences until they are pulling him down into financial, physical, and emotional ruin. "All I did know was that in less than a year, Las Vegas had brought out the worst in me, magnifying my existing problems, inflaming my addictions, and intensifying my deviancy" (page 91). And, "I frolic. I conquer. I stumble. I crash hard. The missteps rip me apart like shrapnel. The nonstop gambling action soothes me like a lick of ice cream on a hot summer day" (page 182).

I sort of get that on an intellectual level. After all, I see it all around me, day after day. I'm vaguely aware that that's what many, perhaps most, people are experiencing to one degree or another as they visit here--in fact, that that's what they come for.

But I don't get it in any sort of sympatico sense. I'm not interested in gambling, except for poker, and don't get any thrill out of it. I don't drink or smoke or use drugs. I don't care for casual sexual hook-ups. I might be the only single, straight male who has lived here for four years without setting foot in a strip club or a night club, not because I'm a prude, but just because they hold little allure for me. In short, I am basically immune to and unaffected by the very set of temptations that this city was designed to feature. That reaction, as you can tell, is about as far removed from Pauly's as it could possibly be.

I had hoped to ponder this for a while and come up with a dazzlingly genius explanation for why Pauly can come here and experience such amazing highs and lows from the sins of Sin City, while I sit in the middle of it all, year after year, and say, "Meh" to it. But, again, after a month of trying to get that particular pot to boil, I've decided it's not going to. He and I are very, very different personalities, and I don't think any amout of verbiage I could throw at the question will be able to probe any deeper than that.

And maybe that's why I enjoyed the book so much--because his way of being in the world, and specifically of being in Las Vegas, is so thoroughly a contrast to my own. Pauly sees the same things that I see every day, but experiences them with emotions that they just don't generate in me, and it was delightful and thrilling to get inside the mind of a wholly different, articulate observer--sort of a Being John Malkovich kind of sensation.

I was about to list here the handful of typos I spotted. I can't help noticing them--I started doing copy editing in high school, and once a copy editor always a copy editor. But now it just seems petty to do so, and probably too boring to read, so skip it. I'll just say that for a self-published, self-edited book, it is blessedly light on such errors.

I hope I won't be abusing copyright fair-use doctrine to insert here a few of my favorite bits, to give you a flavor of the writing:

[Page 20] The Wild Wild West was a low budget casino, a side of Las Vegas
missing from guidebooks and travel magazines. Now I understood why. It was like
walking into a time machine and zapping yourself back to 1981. The clientele at
the Wild Wild West were older than Bob Hope and sat at the bar in silence while
drinking $1.49 draft beer specials and chasing keno jackpots. Geriatric ladies
shoved pennies into slot machines in between huffs on bulky oxygen tanks
attached to the backs of their wheelchairs. It was a hospice with slots, and the
owners were more than happy to accept the remnants of Social Security checks.

[Page 24] I gazed at the skyline of the faux New York City in the distance.
The collective fakeness of The Strip's carbon copy of NYC made me even more
homesick. I finally trudged back inside to log onto Party Poker. If you ever
want to feel like a degenerate loser, play online poker in Las Vegas on a
dial-up connection. Sylvia Plath level depression began sinking in as I missed
another flush draw and realized I was smoking my last bit of ganja. I considered
turning on the oven and sealing my windows to escape my misery.

[Page 62] In less-sanitized terms, Binion's turned into a piece of shit
after Becky ran her deceased father's casino into the ground. What Binion's
lacked in class, it made up in character. The lighting was intentionally poor in
order to shield your eyes from the dismal plight of its inhabitants. Depending
on where you stood the schizophrenic air-conditioning would either freeze your
tits solid or leave you sweating your ass off. If you dropped money on the
floor, you were better off letting it rot than risk contracting some form of
flesh-eating bacteria trying to pick it up. The waitresses were hot pieces of
ass--during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Binion's perpetually smelled of Ben-Gay,
stale cigars, and a truck stop urinal. Downtown's dinginess made it a perfect
backdrop for the Main Event. When you have to step over people lying in puddles
of their own urine on Fremont Street in order to walk into the Horseshoe, it's a
harsh reminder that you're only one bad beat away from lying face down in the
gutter yourself.

[Page 73] I thought about philosophers like Kierkegaard, Heidegger, and
Sartre and how the face of 20th Century philosophy might have changed if they
had frequented Las Vegas. How could you maintain a meaningless and bleak existence when your face was buried in the chest of a tweaking former homecoming queen who used your nose as her personal ass-battering ram?

[Page 137] On the first day, I wagered more money than my old man used to
make in a month humping a shitty desk job for an insurance company in Midtown
Manhattan. I only won two of my four games in a gut-wrenching session, but won
my monster bet on UCLA. Seriously, nothing in this life is sweeter than cashing
a monster ticket at the sports book and counting along inside my head with the
cashier as she counts out my winnings in front of me. I have to wipe the drool
from my mouth and hide my erection as the cashier slides the stack of money
toward me.

[Page 138] The UNLV loss wiped out all of my profit from the first day. I
stewed in a pot of gambler's rage. I tore up a couple of my losing tickets and
watched the small pieces of paper flutter to the carpet. If I had been alone at
home when I suffered those losses, I would have punched a hole in the wall or
tossed an entire litter of kittens into the microwave. Consumed with ire, all I
wanted to do was head-butt the lone Oregon Ducks fan in the sports book.

[Page 237] The guilt-ridden sinners hide from the sneers of God and become
the wayward refugees that pious little Mormon children pray for every night.
Thousands of citizens with good reputations, solid marriages, and impeccable
criminal records become shattered casualties in hazy weekends of Dionysian
decadence while holed up in a room at the Stratosphere shooting pharmaceutical
cocaine into the veins of their feet with a 21-year-old from Boise who moved to
Vegas to become a blackjack dealer but ended up on the pole. After she orders
$500 in room service and clogs up the toilet with a nasty case of diarrhea,
another sucker realizes that he should have waited to sober up before slurring
marital vows in front of a fat and sweaty Elvis at the Graceland Wedding Chapel.

[Page 175] The demons mercilessly poke pin-sized holes in your soul and all
of your warmth, creativity, and morality oozes out to become part of a stream of
hopelessness that flows all the way back to Lost Vegas.

OK, enough of the free previews. If you want more of that, go order your own copy here. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.

Guess the casino, #632






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Planet Hollywood

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Diseased

A couple of weeks ago PokerNews published a list of the most overused poker terms. The #1 item was, fittingly, "so sick."

Here's what I'm going to do to help vanquish this overuse. From now on, whenever I am tempted to use the word "sick" to describe a poker situation, I shall instead refer to it as "diseased."

"Did you see that diseased bluff that Tom Dwan made on High Stakes Poker
last night?"

"Yeah, but Phil Ivey calling him there with just king-high was even
more diseased."

"You caught your one-outer on me? Dude, that is so diseased!"

"If I fold here, it will be the most diseased laydown in history."

You get the idea. I'm curious to see if I can get this to catch on and supplant the use of "sick" in popular poker culture. I will consider it a personal triumph if five years from now PokerNews revisits the question of most overused poker terms, and I find "diseased" on their list.

Won't you help me spread the meme?

Poker gems, #388

Michael Jordan, in a 1999 Nike ad.


I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times I've been trusted to take the game-winning shot, and missed. I've failed over, and over, and over again in my life.

And that is why I succeed.

The end of the world as we know it




Not only is Survivor going to be on Wednesday nights now, instead of Thursdays, where it has been since God himself put it there back in the 1950s or so, and where it so obviously belongs, but the ad execs at CBS are so stupid they don't know the difference between its and it's, nor between verses and versus.

Guess the casino, #631






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: MGM Grand

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

What's in a screen name? #6




I'm guessing that this guy doesn't think much of UltimateBlecch and AbsolutePuker.

Guess the casino, #630






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Hard Rock

Poker gems, #387

Ecclesiates 1:15, Douay-Rheims Bible.


The number of fools is infinite.


[If you have a thing for Latin, as some of my acquaintance do, the Vulgate reads here, "stultorum infinitus est numerus."]

Monday, September 13, 2010

Rules, etc.

I have a long, complicated, troubled personal history with the whole concept of rules--those imposed by governments, culture, religion, professions, relationships, and, yes, games. Most pertinent to this blog, I struggle on a nearly daily basis with how to deal with poker rules, rulebreakers, and rulebenders so as to maintain the integrity of the game without being a pain in everybody's butt.

I was, therefore, intrigued by this essay in Slate about rules and how we as Americans tend to be pretty slack about them, and how we simultaneously benefit from and are hurt by such slackness.

So go read it already.

Milestone and metamorphosis

My girlfriend*, Cardgrrl, started her "Something Beautiful" blog a year ago today. At the time, she didn't know that it would turn out to be the leading edge of a whole new life and career. But that's just what has come out of it--or, I should say, is coming out of it, as the entire thing is still in the early, emergent stages, and exactly what it will become when in full bloom remains to be seen.

Though she hasn't talked about this publicly, the process has been a difficult, painful upheaval, not unlike, I should think, giving birth. That's why I take this occasion not just to mark the passage of a date on the calendar, but to marvel at the energy that she has invested into both a burst of artistic creativity and the germ of an associated new business venture (to be revealed later, in her own good time). I know from personal experience how difficult it is to realize and admit to yourself that one career isn't working, to put an end to it, and to pick yourself up and plop yourself down into an entirely new and different course. For the courage and determination to do that and to make it work, she has my deepest admiration.

Congratulations, my sweet, on passing this marker in the road. I look forward to watching from anear the things that will emerge over the second year of Something Beautiful.



*I know I haven't referred to her publicly with this term before, but y'all didn't really have any doubts, did you? I guess the reason I long hesitated to say anything other than "friend" was, first, just the feeling that the nature of our relationship was nobody's business, and, second, the dread that things wouldn't work out well, and then I'd have to say something about that, with the attendant embarrassment and/or questions, etc.

But as for the first reason, after a certain number of posts about her, and after talking about a certain number of trips across the country for one of us to visit the other, it seems kind of silly to keep being coy about it. As for the second reason, after knowing her for 17 months now, and dating for 15 or so of that, I have no reason to worry that any negative change in status is on the horizon. In one of his few unintentionally funny moments, Woody Allen described his relationship with Soon-Yi Previn, when that was first a public scandal, as a "major, major situation." I think it's safe to say that Cardgrrl and I have a major, major situation, and that we like it. There are, obviously, also major, major challenges, mostly of the logistical variety, the solution to which may require major, major adjustments for one or the other of us at some point. If anything along those lines changes from "thinking about" to "happening," you will, of course, read about it here.

Guess the casino, #629






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Texas Station

Sunday, September 12, 2010

The only way to do it

Really, if you're going to use your blog to tell a bad-beat story, you should be required by law to do it this well.

Yeah, probably

I have found Sunday afternoons during NFL season at Mandalay Bay to be both profitable and enjoyable--in spite of the football, not because of it. So with the first big game day upon us, I prepared myself to be there. I went to bed early last night so I could get up early this morning, get started soon after the first kickoff, and stay as long as it seemed to be going well. Unfortunately, today it went badly from the beginning, but I'll get to that later.

The main purpose of this post is to tell you about a character at the table, an older gentleman who was one of the purest specimens of calling station I have ever come across. Two of his sons were at the table, too, apparently all here as part of a wedding week. In one of this guy's first hands, he called a river all-in bet on a board that had four to a flush and four to a straight--with bottom two pair. As it happened, he was right to do so in this particular case, as the opponent was bluffing with flopped top pair that had gone sour.

But--and you'll just have to trust me on this--the call was not the result of some deep, amazing soul read; it's just who he was. Immediately after the hand was over, one of his sons, in a shocked tone of voice, said, "Dad! What are you doing there?!" The reply: "What? I had two pair--I had to call!" He ruminated on it a bit, however, and well into the next hand, out of nowhere, muttered, "That was probably a bad call."

This became something of a refrain for him. Sometimes he would say it in anticipation, as he put out the chips: "This is probably a bad call." More often, though, it would come after the hand was over and he was reflecting on his performance. "That was probably a bad call." Mind you, this wasn't said to anybody in particular. It wasn't posturing, not a gag line, not apologizing. It was just his own mild self-flagellation. It happened whether he lost the hand (which was most often the case), or whether he won (because once in a while somebody at the table, apparently not having received the memo, foolishly tried to bluff him).

Because I'm going to be riffing here on what a terrible player this guy was, I feel an obligation to also emphasize that he was an extremely nice, pleasant person. He conducted himself with dignity and flawless manners--never got upset, never gloated, never complained. He had some sort of neurological disorder that gave him trouble with both walking (he came to the table via motorized scooter) and fine motor control. He was inadvertantly flashing his cards sometimes because of an inability to handle them with the ease that most of us take for granted. But he persevered without making a fuss about his handicap, and, fortunately, nobody was so gauche as to call attention to the technical problems he was having. (I caught one player on his left sneaking a peek at the man's poorly protected cards, shot him a dirty look for it, and didn't see him try it again. My usual approach would be to ask the dealer to help the player understand how to protect his hand better, but in this situation, that seemed like it might embarrass him, so I kept my mouth shut.) He was there to have fun, to spend some time with his boys playing cards and watching football while celebrating the wedding of one of them, and he seemed just as happy to be there as one could be. He was a pleasure to share the game with. But he was a horrible, horrible player, easily the weakest at the table.

He couldn't help himself. Calling was not just what he did, it defined who he was as a poker player. Why did he call in hopeless spots? As the scorpion famously said to the frog as they both sank into the river, because that is his nature.

At one point, he got check-raised on the turn by his own son--he called, no surprise--then was put to an all-in decision on the river. The young man even said, "Don't call, Dad." (Highly improper, I think, but under the circumstances, I wasn't going to be so nitty as to make a stink about it.) Want to guess what action he took? That's right--he called. He had top pair. His son had flopped a set, turned a full house. He exclaimed, "Dad! What are you doing???" His father just shrugged, made a remorseful face, and said, "That was probably a bad call."

He never delivered this line self-consciously. It was never directed at anybody. He wasn't needling opponents, nor explaining himself to a listener. As far as I could tell, he had no audience other than himself. It was just his own internal dialogue, made barely audible.

Of course, no matter how many times he chastised himself for making bad calls, and no matter how many times he had to go to his wallet for a reload, he didn't actually change how he played. He limped in to about 90% of hands, and would almost always call whatever raise somebody might make after having limped. One time, somebody rather ridiculously raised a bunch of limpers to $32, and got one caller. Guess who?

He calls because it's the only way he knows how to play poker. He has almost certainly heard, multiple times, from multiple sources, the standard advice that most of the time you should raise if you think you have the best hand and fold if you don't; that calling, absent specific reason for doing so, is the worst of your three options and should be the action you resort to least often. But when it comes right down to it, he can't quite bring himself to pull the trigger on a raise--what if somebody reraises him? Then what? The thought is just too scary. But at the same time, every hand seems just a little too good to fold; it has just a bit too much potential to throw away. So he splits the difference and calls. He's not trying to play badly. He's making every individual decision the best he can. But he is caught between fear and hope. Fear makes him reject the raise, and hope makes him reject the fold. Calling is what's left. To him, this likely feels not like bad play, but like carefully steering between the dual dangers of the alternatives. Raising is his Scylla, folding his Charybdis, and, like the ancient mariners, he can feel safe only by steering a course right down the middle of the Strait of Messina.

He calls because he can't help it. He calls because he has always called. It is his nature.

Hannibal Lecter tries to teach young, naive Clarice about understanding people in "The Silence of the Lambs": "First principles, Clarice. Simplicity. Read Marcus Aurelius. Of each particular thing ask: what is it in itself? What is its nature? What does he do, this man you seek?"

He calls. That is what he does.*

As for me, despite my best efforts, nothing was working. It was one of those maddening one-step-forward-and-two-steps-back days. Flopping sets while others flopped flushes, etc. Yada, yada, yada, no need to detail the misery, as you all know just the sort of day I'm describing. The table was so soft that I found myself wondering, "How is it possible that I do not have every dollar these good folks brought to the casino today?" But I just couldn't make it happen.

I was down to my last $134 out of a $300 buy-in several hours into the session. In middle position I looked down at Kh-Qh. Plenty good enough for a raise at this extremely passive, limpy/cally table. I made it $9. I was not surprised to pick up three callers, including the subject of this post.

The flop was Kd-4h-5h, which is about as friendly and welcoming a flop as a fella can reasonably expect to have delivered. I bet $30 and reduced the field to one caller. Yes, that one. LDO.

The turn brought me a lovely sight: the 6h. Ding! Second nut flush. With the pot now $91 (after rake), and with only $94 left, and facing an opponent who would find any possible excuse to call, I saw no need to milk him with a small bet or otherwise get sneaky. I declared myself all in. The dealer counted it down. My opponent counted out the amount for a call, checked and rechecked his hole cards, looked at how much he would have left if he lost, etc. Based on his hand motions, I was first convinced that he was going to call, then convinced he was about to fold, then back to calling again, then folding again.

But in the end, he did what he nearly always did. He called. I showed my cards. He grimaced, as if he had known the news would be about that bad, and rather sheepishly turned over the Ah-Jd. He had called--of course--on the flop with nothing but backdoor draws and one overcard, and had called--of course--on the river with just seven outs to a higher flush.

There was no time for any comment or prediction, because at nearly the same instant, the dealer was peeling off the river card: the jack of hearts, cutting me off at the knees with that effin' axe of his. Nut flush for the calling station.

When I lose my composure at the poker table, it's not in the form of a verbal harassment of an opponent, like Tony G or Phil Hellmuth will unleash. It's not anything that's going to get security called on me, or for which I'm going to feel a later need to apologize. As physical manifestations of frustration go, I'm about as undramatic as they get. But this beat resulted in one of them: I plopped my forehead down on the table in disgust.

I knew that that was enough for me for the day. I was done. So after about two seconds of wallowing in self-pity, I stood up, grabbed my things, and started to walk away, without having said a word.

I'll bet you can guess what I heard our friend say as I left the table behind:

"That was probably a bad call."


*While proofreading this, I got a feeling that I had seen somebody else use this same quotation when describing a poker player. But I read so many poker blogs--who was it? After thinking about it a bit, I decided it might have been Grange95. I searched his site, and, sure enough, back on June 21 of this year, he began a post with the same words, and the context was a discussion of calling stations. When I used it above, I was not consciously copying Grange's usage, but I suspect now that the memory of that post was, in part or in whole, responsible for my brain coughing it up when I got to thinking about the "nature" of a calling station. BTW, you should go read that post, if you haven't already. It's an insightful analysis of different sub-types of calling station, based on what psychological needs their actions are filling.

Online poker cheating

Interesting article on the subject from the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11250835

Hat tip: http://twitter.com/GamingCounsel

Guess the casino, #628






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Paris

Saturday, September 11, 2010

What's in a screen name? #5




This is an excellent and important accomplishment to crow about in a screen name. It is infinitely better than the endless parade of inanities like "JodysMom."

Poker gems, #386

Norman Chad, in ESPN broadcast of World Series of Poker Main Event, August 31, 2010.


Most of life is jack-deuce offsuit.

The "Le Chiffre"

Last night at Mandalay Bay we had a player at the table who had a smarmy move that he pulled every time he had the winning hand. Instead of showing both cards right away when it was his obligation to do so, he turned them face up stacked together, so only one was visible. Then, after a dramatic pause of a few seconds, he would shift the top card over slightly so as to expose the bottom card.

I'm calling this move the "Le Chiffre," in honor (or, more accurately, in dishonor) of the first poker scene in the 2006 James Bond film, "Casino Royale." I expect it has been done similarly in other movies before, but this is the one that immediately came to mind when the douchebag last night was doing it:




The first time the guy at Mandalay Bay did this, it was an all-in and a call, on a queen-high board. His opponent showed A-Q. Monsieur Le Chiffre turned his cards over with a queen showing, waited a bit for the tension to grow, then moved aside the top card to reveal the case queen underneath for the winning set.

I think it's perfectly obvious that this is nothing more than a variant form of slow-rolling, and is to be condemned in the strongest possible terms. It is low down and despicable. It is not cool. It does not make you look smart or glamorous. It is not fun for anybody watching. In fact, it is not enjoyed by anybody except the twisted sociopath who gets his jollies from torturing an opponent with uncertainty and false hope. It is done only by movie villains and real-life villains. Perpetrators should have their hands smashed by a hammer, the back-room treatment that Robert DeNiro's henchmen dish out to blackjack cheaters in "Casino." (Guess what move I've been watching!)

And that's all I have to say about that.

Folding the Mighty Deuce-Four

I played last night at Mandalay Bay. Fairly early in the session, I had a situation in which I ended up folding the Mighty Deuce-Four, after having flopped trip 4s. That doesn't happen often--in fact, never has before--so I thought I'd tell you about it.

I had 2h-4s. The under-the-gun player raised to $10. I smooth-called, as did the button. The flop was 6-4-4 with two clubs. Ding! UTG bet $25. I called, hoping that the button would come along and enrich the pot. (I ain't afraid of no crubs!)

To my surprise, though, the button raised to $80. He was new to the table, having been there only a few hands, so I had no sense of his play. UTG, a completely straightforward, A-B-C player, agonized for quite a while, then folded. No question in my mind that he had a big overpair, which had been the most likely thing from the get-go.

But now what do I do? Very few $1-2 NLHE players raise with just a flush draw, even the nut flush draw and even on the button, especially against two opponents, and especially when the board is already paired. If he had flopped a full house, with 6-6 or 4-6 in hand, I don't think he would raise there. More likely, he would assume and hope that one of his opponents (in this situation, more likely me) was on a flush draw, and he would want to let that hit, so as to maximize the chances of capturing a whole stack. So I pretty much ruled that out. Could he have a big overpair? Maybe, but not very likely, I thought. If he had kings or aces, he probably would have reraised pre-flop, and without them, he would have to be worried that UTG had a bigger pair.

The most obvious conclusion is that he had the case four with a bigger kicker. What hands would a typical player be willing to call an UTG raise with? Only two answers: Suited A-4, or maybe the suited connectors, 3-4 and 4-5. If he had A-4, I could catch up only by hitting my kicker, drawing to three outs. If he had 3-4 or 4-5, chances are we would chop the pot in the end (11% I win, 13% he wins, 76% we split it). However, there was no doubt in my mind, from the way he placed his bet, that in order to get to that point I was going to have to commit my stack, which was a little less than his. Even if he had turned his hand over at that point so that I could see a 3-4 or 4-5, I'm not sure I'd be willing to risk the additional $200 or so in order to be able to claim about $15 profit (my half of the $35 that UTG had put in and abandoned, minus the rake). When you add in the very real possibility that I was up against A-4 (13% I win, 70% he wins, 18% chop), it seemed like a bad gamble.

I decided to fold, which is pretty darn rare after flopping any three of a kind. I thought that I'd see if I could coax from him some confirmation of my decision, so I folded face-up, smiled, and said, "Let's see if folding this is the right move." In response, he flashed me the 3c before giving his cards back to the dealer.

He could not have had the 3c-4c, since the 4c was on the board. I doubt that he would have played an unsuited 3-4 in that spot. That leads me to the conclusion that his most likely hand was 3c-5c, for the flopped open-ended straight-flush draw. I admit that that's a possibility that I hadn't thought of at the moment, but it makes perfect sense. Especially with the overlay of an extra couple of hundred bucks from a high-hand jackpot, he would understandably be willing to play for stacks in that spot, even if he knew he were up against somebody with made trips.

Now here's the most interesting question: If he had shown me the 3c-5c there, what would be the right move? Call, fold, or shove (the latter being with the assumption that he would call)? As I thought about it immediately after the hand, I thought that we were just about 50/50, as he would presumably have 14 outs to beat my trips (the usual 15 that an OESFD brings, minus the one deuce I was holding). I'm not a fan of flipping coins for stacks, since there will almost always come far better situations than that if I invest a little time and patience. But to my surprise, now that I run it through an odds calculator, I would have been farther ahead than that guesstimate. In fact, I would be a 61%/39% favorite.

In retrospect, it's obvious that that's because of all of the boats I could make that turn his outs into what some have proposed calling "douts"--cards that make a hand but don't make it the winner. He had two cards that would give him a lock, but failing that I had seven cards on the turn and then ten more on the river that would fill me up or make quads. So if I had actually seen what I assume now that he had, and had been smart in my thinking, yes, I would have been happy to match stacks with him on that flop.

Even as it was, with my assumption that he had the last 4 in the deck, maybe I should have had more faith than I did that I would be sent a miracle deuce to beat his better kicker. I hang my head in shame at my faltering and wavering. My early religious training comes rushing back to me, and I remember the touching story of the man who brought his son to Jesus for the casting out of an evil spirit (Mark 9:17-30). He was told, "All things are possible to him that believeth." The man's plaintive reply was a classic, and I now invoke it to the poker gods: "Lord, I believe; help thou mine unbelief."

Guess the casino, #627






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Mandalay Bay

Friday, September 10, 2010

History repeats itself

Most avid poker players have heard the story of Jennifer Harman winning a WSOP bracelet in deuce-to-seven (no-limit), having never played the game before, after just a few minutes of strategy coaching from Howard Lederer.

What I didn't know until yesterday is that Daniel Alaei did precisely the same thing, in the same event, in 2006. He tells the story in an interview with Card Player magazine's "The Scoop," video available here, and excerpted on page 90 of the September 8 issue (vol. 23, #18). Billy Baxter coached him (and if you're going to get coached in lowball games, who better to turn to?):

"I told him that I had never played before. I hadn't even played triple-draw. I had played no deuce. So, I asked Billy to give me some pointers, and he gave me a five-or 10-minute lesson."

And that, combined, obviously, with his excellent general poker knowledge and instincts, was enough to propel him to the win.

Impressive.

Guess the casino, #626






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Green Valley Ranch

Thursday, September 09, 2010

First impressions of Everleaf

My first tournament on the Everleaf Network is over, with no money for me. So sad.

It was a $5 turbo with rebuys, so not exactly a format well-tailored for my usual game of patience. But it was just for fun and to try out the software, so I didn't mind trying something different. Given those two qualities, you can guess that players had a low threshold for shoving. Here's the result of my first attempt, all-in pre-flop:



So we see that this site, like so many others, is obviously rigged.

I rebought (why not?!) and tried again. I got somewhat better results this time, again all-in pre:




The third time is not so much a charm:




Three players with A-Q??? Rigged for sure.

The game software seems OK--at least I didn't immediately notice anything annoyingly awkward or stupid about it. At first there was a voice announcing every action, which would have driven me to distraction, but I quickly found the way to shut it off.

I can't really judge the quality of play because the structure rewarded playing somewhat crazy. Sometime soon I'll joing a more normally structured tournament and see how that goes. I've had enough fun for today. Also need to get my trademark innocent-looking lamb avatar uploaded.

Not sure I'll be Luvin it

After reading this morning about the various online poker networks, I was reminded that I don't have an account at any of the Everleaf Gaming sites. I had tried signing up for Victory Poker a month or two ago, but the process got fouled up somehow and didn't complete. Just as well, since that PokerNews story this morning informed me that Victory has up and moved over to the Cake Network, where I already have two accounts (Cake itself and Doyle's Room; the latter is the only one I use and the only one with money in it).

PokerNews, of course, is an affiliate for many sites; the news portion is the loss leader that draws you to sign up for online poker, which is how the site actually makes its money (or so I've been led to understand). There was a convenient link on the page of the story I was reading, so I took the path of least resistance and signed up for Luvin Poker. This is apparently one of some 80 or 90 Everleaf skins.

The download and registration were pretty painless. It was a pleasant surprise to discover that I could make a desposit using my Visa card (an ordinary card, not a gift card or anything like that), despite various attempts by my own elected officials to make that impossible (damn meddlers, busybodies, and control freaks one and all). The only annoying thing was that I had to enter all the credit card info separately on two different forms, but I got over that pretty fast.

Want to know about game selection in the middle of a weekday afternoon? It's pretty slim pickins. Here are the single-table SNGs:



That's 1/10 (me) waiting for a $5 NLHE game, 1/10 for a 0.10 Euro NLHE, 1/10 for a 0.10 Euro PLO, and two heads-up tables with one player waiting, with the highest buy-in being $1. I signed up for mine 45 minutes ago, and I'm still the only one registered.

How about multi-table SNGs? Take a look:





Don't bother counting; I'll just tell you that it's a grand total of ZERO waiting for any of those games.

Here's the regular tournament list:



That $5 one third from top, I'm the only registrant at the time I snapped this. It's about to start now, and there are 11 signed up so far. Nice overlay!

Here are the available cash games:



Definitely a lot more going on in cash than tourneys, but if you look more closely, you see that it's essentially all microstakes. If you get up even as high as $0.50/$1, it's an empty wasteland.

Can't tell you about the gameplay or software yet. I'll come back later for that. One annoying oddity I've found so far: You can only have one tournament lobby open at a time. That means that now that I have this MTT lobby open, the one for the SNG I signed up for snapped shut, so to keep an eye on whether it's filling up, I have to go to the main lobby and scroll down the list of SNGs, find the right one, and look at the numbers. That's just stupid.

Game starting. More later.

One of the reasons I love PokerStars

Does PokerStars deserve some blogger love for this? Yes. Yes, they do.

http://www.upforpoker.com/archives/luckbox-last-longer-challenge-1.html

Just call me "Spicy Aria"

That's the rather bizarre poker nickname selected for me by the system at http://pokernickname.com/. I think I'll stick with "Rakewell," or "Grump"/"Grumpy."

What not to say to women at the poker table

Amusing video by Kristy Arnett and Thuy Doan:

http://tinyurl.com/2ceoznh

The obvious headline is "Leaving Las Vegas"

Often when there's a news story about something or other becoming more or less frequent or popular, you will search the story in vain for anything like, y'know, numbers to back up the assertion in the headline. But to its credit, the Las Vegas Sun reporter goes out and tracks down some actual data about the mass exodus from this city. I remember that when I moved here in 2006, I heard numbers like 3000 or 4000 people a month moving here, really incredible (but apparently then true) growth statistics. No longer.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/sep/02/moving-vegas-not-anymore/

What's available online

PokerNews has a very useful rundown on the current roster of online poker networks and their skins, including which are open to U.S. players. Too bad they didn't add a note about Mac accessibility. They also misspelled "Unabomber" as "Unibomber." Phil won't be happy about that.

http://www.pokernews.com/news/2010/09/poker-skins-undressed-what-it-all-means-working-8959.htm

Guess the casino, #625






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Bellagio

Wednesday, September 08, 2010

One Vegas job that sucks--or bites

Working with the lions at MGM must seem pretty cool, until something goes wrong. See: http://www.goldplateddoor.com/2010/09/08/mgm-grands-lion-attacks/

A-A vs. K-K on hand #1

You may remember a few years ago at the World Series of Poker on the very first hand of the Main Event Sammy Farha had A-10, and another guy (seems to me it was a lesser-known Hollywood actor, but now I'm forgetting who it was; I guess that's because he's lesser known!) had 10-10. When the flop came A-A-10, it was pretty much inevitable that they'd get all the chips in.

This year, Card Player columnist Matt Lessinger lasted only about 25 minutes before running into the bad side of a set-over-set situation against Johnny Chan, and getting knocked out.

This kind of thing has made me wonder many times how likely it is that somebody in the vast field of the Main Event is unlucky enough to be on the ugly side of A-A versus K-K on the very first hand. My inclination, without running any numbers, has been to think that it probably does happen in a typical year. Today, thanks to another bout of insomnia, we're going to find out.

We start with the hardest calculation already done for us. The probability of two specific pairs being dealt turns out to be a much more complicated calculation than one would think, but fortunately for the math-impaired among us, Brian Alspach worked it all out years ago and posted his work here. If you jump all the way to the bottom table, you can just read the answer: If one person is dealt K-K, the probability that he is facing an opponent with A-A at a nine-handed table is 0.0439.

So what is the probability that somebody has K-K? That's not too hard. If you draw two cards at random from the deck, the probability that the first one will be a king is 4/52, or 1/13. If that worked, then the probability that the second one is also a king is 3/51, or 1/17. Combine those, and the answer is 1/221. Using a binomial probability calculator, such as the one here, we can quickly discover that the probability of somebody at a nine-handed table being dealt K-K on any given hand is about 0.04.

Therefore, the combined probability that somebody has K-K and somebody else has A-A is 0.04 x 0.0439, or about 0.00176.

At this year's Main Event there were 7319 contestants, or just over 813 tables with nine players each. Yes, I know that they didn't all play on the same day, and not everybody showed up for the first hand, and they didn't have a perfect arrangement of all tables being exactly nine-handed except for one. But let's pretend that all of those things were true. They're close enough for my purposes, which is just to get an estimate of the overall probability.

Turning again to the binomial calculator, we plug in n=813, k=1, and p=0.00176. The computer instantly tells us that the probability that exactly one table in the field has K-K versus A-A is 0.34. The probability that at least one table has that confrontation is 0.76.

The conclusion, then, is that my hunch was right. In a field of this size, the odds are about 3:1 that at one or more tables, right after "Shuffle up and deal," somebody is facing his worst nightmare. Of course, that doesn't mean that the two players necessarily get all their chips in, nor that the guy with kings loses and goes home. Maybe Mr. K-K can find a fold after about the fifth pre-flop raise, or when an ace flops. Or maybe he gets lucky and hits a set to felt the guy with aces. What happens after the deal is much harder to figure out mathematically.

But I'm setting aside all of the consequential action. All I care about is this fact: In about three years out of four, on average, at least one person will be so unlucky as to be looking down at kings on his very first hand when somebody else at his table is looking down at aces. One way or another, that's gonna leave a mark.

Guess the casino, #624






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Terrible's

Scotty knows





Yep, Scotty knows, baby.


Trivia: The title of this post is a sly allusion to the song "Scotty Doesn't Know," from the 2004 film "Eurotrip." In the movie, that song is performed by the character played by Matt Damon. Matt Damon, of course, was in "Rounders," which featured a clip of the final hand of the 1988 WSOP Main Event And who won the WSOP Main Event ten years after that? Scotty, that's who. Is that a freaky coincidence, or what?

Tuesday, September 07, 2010

What would you pick?

Earlier this year I read somewhere--and now I can't remember where, but perhaps in one of Phil Laak or Jennifer Tilly's columns in Bluff magazine--about how the players in this season's PartyPoker Big Game series got to pick their own entrance music, the theme that would be played upon their grand entrance to the poker rooom.

It's not especially likely that I'll be invited to play on that or any other televised poker show anytime soon, but upon reading that, surely I'm not the only one who starts imagining what music I'd pick should that miraculous day ever come.

It didn't take me long to decide. For as long as I can remember, there has been one piece of music that for me most perfectly embodies the idea of triumph, which is what I would want to convey in that kind of setting. No, it's not the theme from "Rocky" (though that's not half bad). It's the final movement of Beethoven's Symphony #7.

So if you ever hear that the Poker Grump is going to be appearing on the Big Game, here's what you can expect to hear as I am seen walking through the casino door. This is a performance conducted by the man who could put the brio in an allegro con brio like nobody else, the late, great Leonard Bernstein. Enjoy.


Thought for today

Hell hath no fury like a nit with aces cracked.

Guess the casino, #623






To reveal the hidden answer, use your mouse to highlight the space immediately after the word "Answer" below.




Answer: Sam's Town

'Nuff said




This is a screen shot from the final hand of a recent episode of the PartyPoker Big Game.

I don't like Tony G, but the man obviously understands the power of the Deuce-Four.

Monday, September 06, 2010

Yeah, that's the ticket!

I was playing today at Caesars Palace. During one hand, a player put out six red chips ($30), in two stacks of three chips each. For some reason, the dealer saw only one of them (probably because the second one was kind of close to the pot, and he thought it was already part of the pot). He announced the bet as $15. I asked him to check that. He looked again, realized his error, and said, "Make that $30."

A few seconds later he quipped, "I'm just so used to those two-and-and-half-dollar chips."