Friday, December 03, 2010

Decisions, decisions

I was playing today at Caesars Palace. About an hour into the session, I had about $180. I picked up Qc-Jc on the button. It was folded around to me. I raised to $13. The only caller was the big blind.

Flop: Kd-10c-2c. BB checked. I had an open-ended straight draw, a flush draw (and, as we know, crubs always get there), position, a single opponent, and the betting lead. In my book, that's plenty of reason to bet, which I did--$20. He called.

Turn: Kc. Ding! Now I have improved to the second nut flush with an open-ended straight flush draw. Visions of sugarplums royal flushes danced in my head. He checked again. I bet again--another $20. It is unusual for me to repeat a bet size on two streets, but I wanted to maximize the chance of a call, both because I was pretty sure I had the winner and because I wanted a pull at hitting the 9c or Ac for whatever jackpot they had. He called.

River: Some blank, maybe a red 4, I don't remember for sure. He checked again. I bet $40. I was stunned as I could be when he check-raised all-in. He had me covered. It would cost my last $90 or so to call.

What to do in this sort of situation is, obviously, highly dependent on the nature of one's opponent. I can't tell you a whole lot about this guy. He was very quiet. As far as I could tell, he was completely straightforward, not a tricky bone in him--but it was a small sample size. He didn't play a lot of hands, and when he did, he was mostly a calling station. The only aggressive move I had seen him make was a pot-sized bet on the river, with a set he had made on the turn, into a board with a four-straight on it. Surprisingly, he got a call and won. I thought both ends of that bet and call were pretty dubious.

Check-raising the river is unusual in this level of game. It nearly always means either complete trash or a really huge hand. What could he be sitting on?

I broke his possible hands down into four categories. First was the monsters, the nut flush and any full house. Second was complete air--some sort of busted draw, A-Q, or whatever. Third was smaller flushes than mine. Fourth was a category that I wouldn't even open for some players--the Dumb Guy hands. By that I mean hands that only a really bad player would think were good there: trip kings, or something like A-10 for two pair with an ace kicker. With a possible flush and full house out there, it's crazy to check-raise the river with those hands; it's the classic "zero-equity" bet, getting called only when you've lost. You check-call, check-fold, or bet and fold to a raise. But there are some players at this level that can convince themselves that such hands are pure gold in this kind of situation, God bless 'em.

I did not think that he was capable of a river check-raise with nothing, at least not against a player that he probably recognized had been one of the tightest at the table, and who had bet at every opportunity, showing strength. (If he had been paying attention, he would have seen that thus far in the session I had been perfectly A-B-C, betting when I had something, checking and folding when I didn't.) Even if he's capable of such a move in some circumstances, this would not seem to be the place to expect him to deploy it. Would he do it with a busted draw out of desperation? Maybe. But what draw would that be? Another Q-J, going for the straight? If so, would he really continue after that ugly turn card? He can't have a busted flush draw.

So I basically ruled out a busted draw. And I didn't think he would be running a pure bluff from the outset. After all, if he had been planning an out-of-position float to take the pot away (a move I'm not sure is in his repertoire), surely the turn would have been the time to pull the trigger. Not only would he see that as a great bluffing card, but he would not be able to count on me betting the river to put the check-raise in then.

In fact, that was what most occupied my thoughts here: If this is a value bet with a monster, what made him feel confident that I would bet the river? After all, repeating the flop bet on the turn should smell of weakness. If I had a full house there, I don't think I would usually count on my opponent betting the river, and I would most often lead out, hoping for a call or raise, because I wouldn't want to risk getting no more money in if he checked behind. That line of thinking pointed back to the possibility of it being a bluff, either with nothing from the get-go or the busted straight draw. But, again, such a move didn't fit what I knew of his type of play.

All of which led me to consider the Dumb Guy hands, especially trip kings. But I couldn't feel easy about that, because, again, it made no sense to check-raise there instead of check-calling. Did he not see the flush? Did he not grasp the implication of the pair on the board? That's about the level of denseness it would take to check-raise all-in as a value bet in that situation, and it was really hard to attribute that degree of ineptitude to him. He was timid calling-station bad, but not "Oh my God! What's wrong with you?" bad.

Smaller flushes also didn't make sense to me, for basically the same reasons as the Dumb Guy hands. The best non-nut flush he could have was with the 9c-xc. That's a highly tenuous hand on which to pull out the river all-in check-raise; he'll only get called when he's losing.

So that was my dilemma. I could put him on absolutely no hand that fit the action and/or his general style, to the best of my ability to discern it.

Once again, I will give my readers a chance to ponder, comment, guess, commit themselves, before revealing the end of the story in 24 hours.

23 comments:

Grange95 said...

Aiyiyi!! What have you stepped in here?

One thought is that trip Ks is a strong possibility. It's not necessarily a Dumb Guy hand here. Given the action, heads up with preflop raiser, villain could easily think trip Ks are good. It's hard for him to put you on a flush; flushes are a small part of your range.

Villain could also easily have a flush. Lot of ugly Ac-Xc hands are possible, but so are a lot of middle suited connectors. If he hit a flush or a boat, he's likely banking on you overplaying AK/KQ.

Obviously a boat is possible, maybe KT or TT, 22 is less likely for a tight ABC player.

If villain does have a monster, he could easily check the river since you've bet the whole way. If you have nothing, you can bluff one last time. If you have a big but second place hand, you'll bet/call. If you have a mediocre hand, you may not bet, but you may fold to a river lead out bet. I find this passive/trappy line rather common in the small Vegas games among the casual players. Remember, it's not how you or I (or the 2+2 crowd) would play the hand in an ideal poker game, it's how this particular player thinks is the best way to play his hand. And lots if players still prefer the amaaaaazing check-raise move to the boooooring value bet.

All things considered, I hate your spot, but the raise isn't that huge given the pot size, and you have a string hand, and there are plausible hands you beat (trip Ks, smaller flushes). I think this is a standard, if annoying, call. If you are beat, you at least get some info. on how this guy plays OOP vs. your preflop raise.

Rakewell said...

Grange's comment made me realize I had left smaller flushes out of my discussion. I have edited in one sentence and one paragraph to include my thoughts about it.

dmbfan41cnLV said...

Yuck.

Given the minimal info we have on your opponent coupled with the fact that you have slightly more than half your stack in the pot already... I make a crying call. unfortunately, I have a bad feeling he has the K10. Regardless of his holdings his line here is very bizarre. Look forward to reading the results tomorrow.

steeser said...

I've used the logic you used below often.

"If this is a value bet with a monster, what made him feel confident that I would bet the river? After all, repeating the flop bet on the turn should smell of weakness. If I had a full house there, I don't think I would usually count on my opponent betting the river, and I would most often lead out, hoping for a call or raise, because I wouldn't want to risk getting no more money in if he checked behind.".

Most of those times I've called, and proceeded to have been shown a full house or quads. Most 1/2 players just aren't thinking on this level.

It's also true that most 1/2 players do not have the talent/gumption to check raise the river without the nuts, or damn close. This is almost never a bluff.

All that said, you have underrepresented your hand strength due to your betting sizes. Between that, and the 2.5-1 pot odds you are getting to make the call, I think you have to call, and I expect you to have the winner between 1/3 and 1/2 the time.

geezer said...

22 most likely followed by 1010 he thinks your 20 turn bet is probing for a full house ...( he puts you on AK since that is all he would raise with in that position)...so he is relatively certain you will bet the river

Missingflops said...

Yeah, I think this one is the definition of "crying call" given that you're getting 2-1 with the second nut flush and you can't make enough sense of his hand to narrow him down to a point where you're not good.

Grange pretty much nailed the idea of his play I think - slow playing the monster wouldn't really make sense, but it does fit with a bad player trying to be cute with his hand. Unfortunately, if he's at the level where he would do that, he's probably at the level where he thinks that trip kings merits a check raise.

Call, Reload, Blog

Grange95 said...

The best non-nut flush he could have was with the 9c-xc. That's a highly tenuous hand on which to pull out the river all-in check-raise; he'll only get called when he's losing.

I think a baby flush might take this line hoping you have AK/KQ. There's little reason for villain to think you have a boat or big flush. Your hand looks a lot like AA, AK, or KQ, and a small flush is licking it's chops there.

Of course, you and I might bet-call or check-call baby flushes on a paired board because of past experience. But not everyone has that same approach. There are a lot if reckless players who either overvalue their hands, or folks who play a lot of tourneys and are overly focused on getting value out of middling hands.

I agree with you completely that trip Ks and baby flushes are Dumb Guy Hands. I just find more Dumb Guys in my games.

Unknown said...

I make the call. It's cheap enough. Maybe this is a leak in my game, but I like the way Harrington does this analysis. He sets percentages to various outcomes and multiplies these outcomes together to form an overall decision. I think here the 'cost' of running into a monster is acceptably small.

hfrog355 said...

(just because I KNOW this is your style) Rise up from your chair, chips in hand, braying like a donkey as you make the crying call. Jersey Shore fist pump as he shows you AK, KQ or KJ.

I don't think you're behind here very often. If he'd flopped 2 pair (KT), you would have seen the check raise on the flop, hoping to get more money before the board turned ugly and to "teach you a lesson" for stealing his blinds. I also think you would have seen a c/r on the turn with the nut flush or a jamwich on the river, not the check. I don't know how he's got a lower flush really - the c/c line is terrible with a 9 (at best) high flush. Your hand is pretty strong here - I wouldn't fold it. He's show the ability to push a very marginal hand (set on the 4-straight) on a scary board. Even better for you, it worked for him last time and so now he thinks he's bulletproof.

I'm going to be shocked if you tell me he rolled over TT.

There are some who call me... Tim said...

For me it is a no-brainer... I call, while mentally crossing every finger and toe.

Of course, the basis of this being a no-brainer is also the basis of my NOT playing poker for a living. I may not be a bad player, but I am simply not tremendously good.

In a similar situation at a friendly game recently I called, and arrogantly stated "you d*** well better have that ace!", flipping over my K-high flush. He showed his Ace-high flush, took my chips, and laughed. I believe my reaction was "Doh!".

Pokerwolf said...

Based on what you know about the guy (quiet, not a lot of hands, straightforward, etc) I think we can rule out KK. If he seems like a "by the book" guy or a nit, then KK would be a re-raise because they'd want to protect their hand (unless you were playing with a jackpot or bonus going on which you didn't mention, so I figured that there wasn't one). 22 is more likely than KT in my mind, but given that he called your turn bet with no qualms, I think you're up against a KT full house.

A smaller flush is a possibility, but I've seen lower players bet small when they're drawing or when they have a smaller flush, so he might have pegged you with that and he has As-x. Definitely a nasty place to be, but I'd call because your hand is strong enough to merit it and you'll get information on his playing style.

Shrike said...

I can't fold given these pot odds. I expect to win enough times to make this "crying call" a correct one.

-PL

John Barrett said...

I think you're toast....I think he has Ac-xc and has slow-played his hand, letting you drive the betting action. I also agree that you should call on the chance that he does have a dumb-guy hand, but my read of the hand suggests that your call will be a crying one.

timpramas said...

Great topic for a post and you did a nice job describing the situation. The other comments do a nice job analyzing your choice. I would probably call in this spot.

When bet sizes get repeated on consecutive streets, opponents tend to interpret the action in one of two ways.

One interpretation is that you are doing this with a really strong hand in an effort to build the pot, but making it cheap enough to string an opponent along. If that is how your opponent interpreted your turn bet, then it makes sense for your opponent to check on the river and believe you would then bet. This could mean you are beat, but the existance of what you termed as "dumb guy hands" also might fit this opponent's betting pattern.

If your opponent instead interpreted your turn bet as a sign of weakness (you have a hand you don't like much on a dangerous board, you are putting out a "feeler bet" and you don't think your hand can take much heat)then your opponent might think you don't want to go to a showdown on the river and will bet/bluff if he checks to you, but will fold if he bluffs w/an all-in check raise.

Given these possibilities, the strength of your hand,and the pot odds offered (all factors well-analyzed previously in other comments), this is a good spot for a call.

Anonymous said...

"I had seen him make was a pot-sized bet on the river, with a set he had made on the turn, into a board with a four-straight on it"

Pot is about 187 (not including the rake) so we are being offered about 2/1 for our money. We need to be right more than 33% of the time to make the call.

Your earlier observation (above) suggests that he is more than capable of playing one of the hands in the "dumb hand range."
I don't think he has 3 Kings, however. If he makes pot sized bets into 4 card straight boards on the river with trips, seems to me he bets the river in front of you.

Regardless, I think, that he thinks, that he has the best hand here. He either has a K10 or flopped a set... or he has a small flush with a suited connector, something like 9c8c-5c6c.

Are you good more than 33% of the time against this range? Probably not.

He thinks he's best. I don't like it, but I fold.

Anonymous said...

"I had seen him make was a pot-sized bet on the river, with a set he had made on the turn, into a board with a four-straight on it"

Pot is about 187 (not including the rake) so we are being offered about 2/1 for our money. We need to be right more than 33% of the time to make the call.

Your earlier observation (above) suggests that he is more than capable of playing one of the hands in the "dumb hand range."
I don't think he has 3 Kings, however. If he makes pot sized bets into 4 card straight boards on the river with trips, seems to me he bets the river in front of you.

Regardless, I think, that he thinks, that he has the best hand here. He either has a K10 or flopped a set... or he has a small flush with a suited connector, something like 9c8c-5c6c.

Are you good more than 33% of the time against this range? Probably not.

He thinks he's best. I don't like it, but I fold.

Anonymous said...

Easy fold. He has K10 or 1010. More likely K10. He doesn't bet the river because he doesn't want to alarm you and chase you away. After you bet the river it's an easy raise for him, and ought to be an easy fold.

Anonymous said...

He doesn't think you have the flush, he senses weakness in you. Your bet was the same on the flop and turn so he thinks the turn didn't help you, so no K and no flush.
I'm putting him on A10, A of clubs. He called hoping to catch the nut flush, when he didn't he checked the river. Once you bet a larger amount on the river, he's thinking you're trying to buy it so he came back at you.
No way he has full house or flush, he wouldn't have checked the turn or river. Small chance of trips but I think he is incorrectly sensing weakness on your part.

Same bet on turn says the King/third club didn't help andf the 4 on the river couldn't have helped. He's got you on 10s at most. A10, maybe QQ, JJ.

Jordan said...

AK. He has AK. That was easy.

It fits his profile (raising on the river with a good hand, even though a better hand is likely) and your betting pattern (which he probably read as weak). He probably thought he was ahead the whole time with TPTK and the river settles it for him. Since you were betting the whole way, he probably figures you were not on the flush draw, so he is ignoring that possibility. He thinks his AK is good, and he was hoping you'd push the river, based on your prior action.

Or, in short, AK.

Anonymous said...

Was the push on the river immediate or did he think about it?

Rakewell said...

Immediate.

Anonymous said...

His lack of aggression means he could have had a very good preflop hand. I still like AT,QQ,JJ but I'm wondering if he would have called w/ AT. AK,KQ,KJ are possible too. Smaller flush or full house and I think he would have pushed sooner. I still feel like he read weakness and you have him beat.

Conan776 said...

Maybe he got sticky with a small pair and binked a full house on the river. Your funky turn bet is a wrench in the works. If he misread it as a block bet, he could be trying to push you off a missed draw (and hoping you don't have a T) with a lot of his range.