Saturday, December 04, 2010

Decisions, decisions (conclusion)

If you have not already read the first part of this story, in which I described the decision I faced, you might want to do so now, before reading on.


I thought a long time, and finally folded.

Well, first I threw up in my mouth a little bit, THEN I folded.

I decided he wasn't the type to check-raise the river with air. I thought he wanted a call, which meant that he believed he had me beat. And the hands that actually had me beat weighed more heavily in my mind than the Dumb Guy hands. I just couldn't see him being obtuse enough to value-check-raise with trips in that situation. I decided that he was quite a bit more likely to have a full house, or, at minimum, the ace-high flush, than something that he mistakenly thought was the winner.

He mucked without showing, so I'll never know.

If I had to guess his most likely hand, it would be a suited K-4 (or his kicker pairing whatever the river card was). On the flop, he thought top pair was good enough for a call. On the turn he like his trip kings, but worried about the flush. On the river he finally made his hand, and made the instant decision to go for the check-raise, without really thinking through whether that was the way to get maximum value, whether I could be relied on to bet for him. But flopped two pair with K-10 is also a decent possibility, as is either 2-2 or 10-10 for a flopped set--but if so, he played them very strangely.

But I'll tell you that I'm having pangs of regret about the fold. In retrospect, I really wonder if he had trip kings and he inadvertantly bluffed when he thought he was value-betting. On the other hand, I hate making bad calls, and I like to imagine that I'm better at getting away from second-best hands than most of my opponents. Maybe the laydown was correct. I really don't know.

Frankly, the uncertainty is annoying me more than I should let it. I'm so used to not knowing such things that it usually doesn't eat at me. I shrug and move on. Once in a while, though, a situation is so puzzling that I can't figure it out to any satisfaction, which causes my brain to keeping mulling it over, trying to unlock the riddle. But I know from experience that the second-guessing of myself will pass quickly, and this hand will be mostly forgotten, like the other thousands before it.

And, just for C.K., I have to say this: Stupid crubs.

9 comments:

Grange95 said...

If the guy is bad enough to be in this hand with K4s, he's bad enough to be check-raising the river with trips or a baby flush. If he did have a boat, I think most of the time it would be KTs or TT, where he slowplayed a big hand on the flop, got skittish on the turn, then went back to trapping the river. Given the passive line, though, I really think KT is the only truly probable boat (how does a set not bet/raise the turn to protect against a river crub?).

Still interesting hand all around.

Anonymous said...

In a situation like this, do you ever ask a player what he had? During the game? Away from the table?

Anonymous said...

I actually like this conclusion to the story . . . not being sure if you made the right decision or not. That IS poker. It's part of the mystery of the game. It also shines a light on the fact that the outcomes are not nearly as important or interesting as the decision process.

Anonymous said...

If I already had $93 in the pot and I had a flush, it's an easy call for me. But then maybe I'm too loose!

Anonymous said...

What the heck???? Grump - I love your blog and I am a fan of the "decisions" posts and I was very happy when I logged on this evening and saw the conclusion post UNTIL the part where I don't get closure as he DIDN'T show!! I am so unsatisfied. Boo hiss.

Anonymous said...

I would have called. One (very costly) piece of advice I've received is: do all the math. if it's a clear fold, fold - if it's close, then call. why? because it's more fun to call then fold. very costly advice... I think a critical piece of info is the tenor of his call on the turn - the longer this call took, the more likely you are to be beat.

Jordan said...

What a tease! If you are going to reveal the results after 24 hours, you ought to actually know the results. LEMON!

(By the way, it was AK).

Mark T said...

The most obvious, and yet paradoxically least likely, answer to me was that he had KK. I've had opponents do this to me a number of times over the past few years, and even done it myself once (or maybe twice).

The thinking is "I'm in the big blind - I don't want to raise with my kings because I'll scare him away and only win $13. I'll just call. Besides, an ace might flop and this way I can quietly fold if it comes."

"Oh, crap! I hit top set! Well, I can't bet here, he'll fold for sure. I'll just have to check and hope he catches something."

"Huh! He bet! Must be bluffing. I'd better just call to give him a chance to bet the turn, too. He'd never bet just a flush draw here. Besides, what are the odds he hit a flush draw? It's just him and me in the pot!"

"Oh, holy cow. Quads. There's no way I'm getting any more money from him now, is there? I'm doomed. Wait - he bet. OK, let me see. If I just call here, maybe I can check raise the river to make sure he gets pot committed. That's my only chance!"

"OK - check raise! Now he has to call! Yes yes yes! Oh, drat. He folded. I *knew* quads weren't going to be paid off!"

BWoP said...

:-(

The crubs did their job and got there . . . what more can one ask for?

(And yes, I am aware that I am horribly delinquent at commenting on this post.)